Thursday

At 5AM, precipitation is rapidly streaming northeastward from southern VA and should overspread central MD between 6 and 7AM.  Current temperatures are in the mid 30’s but dew point temps are in the low 20’s, so once the precipitation starts, cold air aloft will be drawn down and surface temperatures will drop to at or slightly below freezing for areas west of I95.  As far as precipitation type, there may be a brief period of rain that will quickly transition to sleet and snow for the remainder of the morning hours for just about all of central MD.  The sleet and snow could be moderate to heavy and accumulations of a coating to a couple of inches are possible, though mainly in grassy areas.  Because temperatures have not been below freezing leading up to this event, roads should be just wet initially, but if the short range models are right regarding intensity, and I think they are, then a slushy film is possible during the heaviest sleet and snow along the 95 corridor with the usually favored northern and western areas having the highest likelihood of impacts.

There will be improving conditions from south to north as we go into the afternoon hours, but cold air trapped at the surface is difficult to scour out, so those improvements will be slow.  In the northern tier and western counties, icy conditions could last until the evening.

Not a bad start to winter considering that we are still a week away from Thanksgiving!