A system will eventually organize in the southwest later this week, and though most models have it exiting the southeast coast harmlessly out to sea over the weekend, there is still optimism for things to change for the better for the mid-Atlantic. Both the afternoon Euro and evening GFS models improved a tad north from their previous runs, but still no snowfall is modeled to make it into the area. However, if you’ve been a reader of the WM over the years, you know that many east coast winter storms can actually end up further north than modeled in the medium range, and I think that’s particularly true in Nino years. Just know that it wouldn’t take much to change for this to become a decent storm for the area late in the weekend, so stay tuned.
Also, for those that enjoy perusing the model runs, I should note the GFS is scheduled to be replaced in late January by the FV3-GFS. Until then, I may refer to both models in my updates. Just for comparison, this evening’s FV3 is the most north of the three models and has some light snow overspreading central MD during the day Sunday, but though more than both the Euro and GFS, it’s still nothing of significance.
Things will certainly change throughout the week, so I’ll update periodically.
The Weather Mill 