The early Euro run hasn’t come out yet, but some of the other morning medium and short-range model runs look somewhat better for tomorrow night’s snow event, specifically the new GFS (fv3) and the Canadian short range RGEM. Even on those two “best case” scenarios, it’s still modeled as an advisory event for central MD of 2 – 4″, but I’ll be watching the model runs closely today to see if we can eek out a high end advisory or even a low end warning over the weekend (warnings are for 5″ or more, which I still think is unlikely for central MD with this system). I’ll write a more detailed update later today or this evening after all the mid-day runs.
By the way, by the look of the long-term models, tomorrow night may be just the beginning of what could be a very memorable stretch of winter weather.
The Weather Mill 