Stay Current on Forecasts Today

Let me preface this by saying that the short-range 12km NAM model has a reputation of being on steroids and has a tendency to over-forecast precipitation totals.  However, this morning’s midday NAM is hard to discount, especially when its brother, the 3km, also ups the ante.  Both show the coastal low that develops tomorrow in a more favorable position that would give the region more precipitation into Sunday morning.  If I was a forecaster, as of now, I would still go with a 3 – 5″ event generally from north to south across central MD, but I would add the caveat that it’s subject to change.  That accumulation range is based pretty much solely on an approaching warm front from the southwest that will override cold air entrenched at the surface (it’s called warm air advection) ultimately causing lift and in this case, precipitation.  In the meantime, a weakening storm center in KY/TN will eventually transfer energy to the coast tomorrow.  Where that new storm forms could have impacts on our area and the nam says we should keep an eye on forecasts throughout the day today.

I have plans during the day today but will stay current on model runs.  I may send out a couple of short updates as those runs complete, so hopefully I won’t be cluttering anyone’s mailbox (as I write this, some of the other intramural league midday models are also showing an increase, but I want to wait until the midday Euro run to start celebrating).