Sunday Midday Update for Wednesday

Sunday, December 13, 2PM

Over the past 24 hours, I have been on a roller coaster watching models give us a foot or more of snow only to take most of it away 6 hours later on a different run. There really isn’t much to add today compared to yesterday’s update. Both GFS and European models still show a winter storm for the area beginning in the late morning or early afternoon on Wednesday. We still don’t know what track the storm will take, so we don’t know how much snow any area will get, however, I think the biggest takeaway from the runs over the past 24 hours is that for most of us, this will probably not be an all snow event. It looks like we will all start as snow, then mix and possibly change to sleet and/or rain, then eventually back to snow. I still think that ultimately this will verify as a warning event for most areas west of the bay in central MD (5 or more inches of snow/sleet), but it’s still almost 3 days away, so we’ve got a ways to go before we can make any confident guesses to specific accumulations.

I’ll update either late this evening or tomorrow morning.