7:30 PM, Tuesday, December 15
The evening model runs are in and though I think we could still fare worse than what models are showing, here are how things stand now. Most areas will start as snow tomorrow morning (between 9 and noon from south to north) and what we get before the changeover is probably all we will see. In model runs before today, there was a chance of a changeover back to snow tomorrow night that had the potential to drop several inches in a hurry, but that’s not looking like it will happen. We need to start as snow, and hope we hold on to cold temperatures as long as possible before the storm brings in warmer air from the east because that’s probably where we will see most if not all of our accumulations. Regardless, there is going to be a tight gradient between those that get a decent event and those that throw a fist in the air and curse the snow gods. To illustrate this, parts of Montgomery and Howard counties are in a Winter Storm Warning for an excess of 5″ of snow and sleet, while a short drive to the east in Anne Arundel, Prince Georges, and counties south of there, you’ll find Flood Watches posted. So, unless there’s a late save, which I don’t expect, here’s the latest breakdown.
If you live in eastern Baltimore, Anne Arundel, or PG counties, and anywhere east or south of there, you’re probably in for a cold, rainy day. You will probably start as snow in the morning, but warm air will nose in quickly and switch the snow to sleet and rain fairly quickly. Maybe an inch or so before the changeover. After that, it’s just a cold rain. And lots of it.
For areas right along and just east of I 95, especially the more south you are, things are not a whole lot better. Precipitation will start as snow and transition to sleet and rain by mid afternoon and may change back to snow late tomorrow evening, but for the most part, it looks more wet than frozen. About 1 – 3″ from east to west right along 95.
Once you get west of 95, the initial thump of snow should hold on longer before the changeover, so anywhere from 3 – 6″ from 95 to about route 97. West of there, and north of 70 stands the best chance of seeing the most snow, but even in those areas, I would not be surprised to see a change over to a long period of sleet, or even rain. I think that by late tomorrow, most of central MD will change over to sleet and rain and the highest accumulations of maybe 6 – 10″ will be limited to extreme northern MD and out west past Frederick. For the rest of us, whatever falls tomorrow during the day will likely be waterlogged by late evening.
If you want to see big snows tomorrow, the best areas look to be along the I 81 corridor where they may stay all snow and exceed a foot. Obviously, the mountains in Garrett and Tucker counties will fare well too.
For us, if we weren’t changing over to sleet and rain, this would be a great December storm. And to be fair, any snow in early and mid December is really a bonus, so I’ll be happy with whatever we see tomorrow. But it is disappointing to see the promise of a great snow event just a couple of days ago being washed down the gutter. If there’s any good news it’s that the pattern looks to be just starting, so there may be a couple more opportunities for snow in the next couple of weeks. Something actually popped up in this evenings runs for right around Christmas, so maybe we will finally get that elusive White Christmas.
By the way, the evening European model just finished running and if it’s right, I’d have to cut back the totals I just posted. Either way, I’ll update in the morning.
The Weather Mill 