Friday, January 29th, 2:30 PM
I had hoped that today’s midday model runs would come to an agreement on how this weekend’s storm will play out, but unfortunately, we are still not that much clearer. Yesterday’s update pretty much still sums up my current thinking.
Confidence is still high that an area of low pressure west of the Appalachians will force relatively warm air aloft causing snow on Sunday. Some of the higher resolution short range models are suggesting that some light snow may arrive a bit earlier than I had thought yesterday, around sunrise, but I don’t think that will amount to much. Any accumulating snow looks to arrive around noon continuing through the afternoon, possibly moderate at times, with about 3 to 6″ of accumulation by evening that will make for some great sledding. Then it looks like we go into a lull during the overnight hours of light snizzle or frizzle as we wait to see where the coastal low develops. That is where the models continue to diverge. All models do indicate that there will be some redevelopment of precipitation (predominantly snow) around sunrise Monday morning, but without knowing where the coastal low forms and whether it stalls makes Monday’s accumulations more difficult to pin down.
For now, I think an additional 2 to 4″ call is reasonable with the caveat that it’s liable to change. If the storm forms closer to the coast, then we get some of the cold, wind-driven powder on the backside of the system, and could see 4 or more additional inches. But if the storm center slips to the east, then we see some light snow of 1 – 2″ that ends around noon. Regardless, this could be the first warning level event the area has seen in a long time, so, as I said yesterday, I will enjoy whatever falls on Sunday and cross my fingers for a lingering snow bomb on Monday.
I will update early Saturday morning with how the overnight runs looked.
The Weather Mill 