Tuesday, February 16, 3PM
The models continue to converge on a Winter Storm Warning event for areas north and west of I-95 in central MD beginning before sunrise Thursday and continuing through the day. All midday models either held serve or got colder than previous runs so I expect the NWS will issue Winter Storm Watches this afternoon for most of the region. It still looks like most of us start as snow and then possibly change over to sleet and or freezing rain later in the morning or early afternoon. Those details can be sorted out as we get closer to the event, but one thing that is looking better than any storm we’ve had so far this winter is that cold air will be available for the duration of the storm. Strong high pressure is expected to be anchored over New England on Thursday, so unless that changes, northeasterly winds will force cold air down the coast, and whatever falls on Thursday will eventually be frozen. For those that want all snow, we need to see some more changes in the warm air advection being advertised by the NAM models to keep all levels cold enough to support snow. The GFS has been trending in the the right direction, and the Euro this afternoon went all snow for most areas west of 95, but it’s hard to bet against the NAM as it has been the model that seems to have done the best this year. It still says snow to sleet (and maybe a lot) to freezing rain with below freezing surface temperatures, but it has the least amount of snow. Either way, Thursday travel looks to be difficult.
I’ll update again tomorrow.
The Weather Mill 