Incredibly, All Systems Are Go!

Hard to believe that it’s 60 degrees outside and we are 12-15 hours from a snow event, but most models continue to trend in our direction including the GFS and the Euro. Both are presently jack-potting the area between Annapolis and DC, but this is a fluid forecast as things continue to change quickly. The NWS is playing it safe, as they should, and upping totals gradually as new data comes in, but I think they are still a bit behind. If trends continue with the evening models, I expect most of the area to be under Winter Storm Warnings later tonight. If you are following the snow maps that models are spitting early this afternoon, you know that some of the totals being depicted are in the 6 – 18″ range, but be weary of those those. They are almost always overdone, and with warm ground temperatures, we would lose some accumulation to cooling the surface. However, there is plenty of cold air just to our northwest that will continue filtering in the rest of the afternoon, and once precipitation begins, temperatures should crash quickly. If pressed for amounts, I’d divide those totals in half, but that’s just a guess.

For now, I want to watch some football and enjoy the (hopefully) second-to-last-day of break, so I’ll update later this afternoon or evening as the storm comes together to our southwest.