Although I’m fairly certain that we will see a modest 1 – 3″ snow tonight, there’s good and bad news. The good news is that some of the models are suggesting that there will be an area within central MD where heavier bands develop that could push snow totals a little higher. Even better is that one of those models is the GFS which led the pack on our most recent snow. If the GFS is to be believed, then a period of heavy snow would be in the cards in the early morning hours resulting in a more substantial 3 – 5″.
The bad news is that these types of systems that cross the area as they are transferring energy to the coast can often times fail. A few of you may remember an old DC meteorologist eluding to disappointing setups like this as, “robbing Peter to pay Paul.” What he meant was that an approaching storm to the southwest, like the one we have today, looked primed for a flush hit, but instead fizzled out, skipped over the area, and redeveloped to our northeast. Central MD would get robbed and areas from Philly to New England would enjoy the riches.
Fortunately, I don’t think tonight’s situation is anything like some of those disappointments, and in the end I think we should all wake up in the morning to a wintry scene. To be completely honest, I’m hedging my bets on the GFS being on to something with the heavier bands and higher totals, but that could be wish-casting. Regardless, snow should begin tonight after 9PM and end around 5AM. Cold temperatures will ensure that we get maximum stickage so although snow will have stopped falling by morning, roads and sidewalks will still be icy.
I may do one more update this evening to convey how things are developing.
The Weather Mill 