This Week

The overnight Wednesday into Thursday event is looking more likely today, and though it doesn’t look like more than a nuisance event for most areas, the timing is during the morning rush hour on Thursday. Still a little early for details, but after seeing the midday model runs, right now it looks like rain beginning after midnight tomorrow night, then mixing with and changing to snow well before sunrise. Accumulations look to be at most an inch or two, and road conditions will be determined by whether or not the temperature can fall below freezing Thursday morning. There’s a lot of residual salt on the roads now, but any rain would wash it off, and worse, prevent pre-treatment. The timing could be crummy for school officials, and if temperatures dip to below freezing, roads could quickly become slick. We can wait for the mesoscale short-term models to get into range before making any serious calls, which will be tomorrow afternoon.

The Friday night and Saturday system is one that has a lot of potential and one that I thought we actually had a chance to reel in, but today’s runs do not look nearly as promising as they had last night. Unfortunately, I think Thursday’s system could ultimately mess up our chances for a real snowstorm this weekend. Hopefully that changes, but I’m not as confident as I was yesterday. I’ll periodically update on both possible events as the models converge.

Looking beyond this week, the cold pattern and fast flow of disturbances looks to continue, so more chances next week.