Still a super close call for the metro corridor between an inconvenience snow and a plowable event. It’s really going to come down to where the storm tracks and how fast it intensifies. Fifty miles east and it’s a nothing burger, but fifty miles west and it’s game on. One of the short range models suggest that 4-6 inches is possible along the 95 corridor, while the more reliable gfs and euro say 1-2”. The NWS has wisely put their forecast in the more conservative 1-2” camp along the 95 corridor, less to the west, and increasing to 2-4” closer to the bay. The eastern shore has Winter Storm Warnings and even Blizzard Warnings at the beaches for up to a foot of snow. If I was able to, there is no doubt I’d be chasing this down at the beaches. It’s going to be a great storm for them, and an epic storm along the New England coast.
But for us, precipitation will develop around 3PM in central MD and continue into the night. We may start as a mix of snow and rain but should change to snow pretty quickly as colder air aloft filters down to the surface. The NWS forecast looks very reasonable with 1-2” along the corridor and more to the east along the bay. Unfortunately, there will probably be enough snow to cause schedule changes this afternoon and evening, especially with the lack of confidence in the forecast. Not to mention this is going to be a very cold storm and temperatures will fall into the 20’s quickly, so anywhere that gets precipitation is going to be icy once the sun sets.
I’ll update again early this afternoon as things are developing with any last minute thoughts.
The Weather Mill 