A much deserved reprieve from the cold in the next couple of days, and then a strong arctic front approaches the area Thursday and Friday. Tomorrow and Wednesday look fairly decent for early February and temperatures will feel mild compared to what we have seen recently. By Thursday afternoon, an area of low pressure will ride along the front and approach the area from the southwest bringing rain beginning late Thursday into Friday. We are going to be on the southeast and warm side of the front through at least Thursday night so there’s no question that the precipitation will be rain.
Beyond Thursday night is where the models diverge. Pre-sunrise Friday and Friday afternoon need to be monitored for the possibility of the strong cold front passing through the area and dropping temperatures very quickly. We do not do well when we start as relatively warm rain and then count on cold air to arrive, so at this time I’d say the chances are slim that this becomes a big deal. The only reason I bring it up is because the model that has done the best this winter in the 5 day range is the GFS, and what it has shown for a couple of consecutive runs today is pretty ugly. For both the midday and evening runs, the gfs has shown a pretty significant ice storm developing across the area Friday morning and afternoon. And no one likes an ice storm. There is presently no other model support so hopefully, the GFS comes to its senses overnight and we can have have a quiet work week.
I’ll update tomorrow.
The Weather Mill 