Sunday

Preface

If after reading the update, you feel like you haven’t learned anything, it’s deliberate because confidence is low on specifics. My official first forecast for tomorrow is that it’s a good day to get any errands or activities wrapped up by late morning and then hover around a fire for the remainder of the day.

Saturday, January 18, 9AM

Hopefully we all got a chance to enjoy the relatively milder temperatures because the bottom is about to fall out. During the day tomorrow arctic air will begin spilling into the area and for the MLK holiday and well into the shortened work week, temperatures will struggle to reach even 20 degrees for highs, and some areas will likely fall below zero for the first time in years. I’ve been a pretty quiet regarding tomorrow because the snow portion is a tricky forecast, but the coming cold air is guaranteed. The difficulty in the forecast for Sunday for the majority of the area is the timing of the arrival of the cold air, so I’m going to keep this short and worry about details in later updates as the models come in during the day today.

Precipitation will arrive tomorrow morning from southwest to northeast across the area from 7 – 9AM. If it starts as snow, you’re locked in to 4 – 6″. If it’s raining, obviously the amount of snow will be determined by when the colder air arrives. I think areas west of 95 changeover by noon and east of 95 to the bay between noon and 2PM. Regardless, by about noon until about 5PM, the precip could become moderate to heavy. It’s a quick moving system, but I think all areas west of the bay across central MD get 2 – 4″ by the time things wrap up, and areas that are currently under a Winter Storm Warning (Frederick, Carroll, and northern Baltimore counties) end up in the 4 – 6″ range.

I’ll send out an update this evening between the upset in Kansas City and the taming of the Lions.