Saturday, December 13, 11AM
First things first, the winner of the Snow Contest this year is Mikaela Lidgard with her guess of December 4, at 8AM, and the actual first inch of snow at BWI was recorded on December 5, at noon. To be honest, I was caught off-guard because at my house well north of BWI, there was only a coating, so I was surprised to see that the airport did so much better. But, as has been the case the last few winters, the southern areas have done better than the north Baltimore metro area. I was also surprised that no one in the contest (125 entries) picked December 5th as the first snow as it has occurred three or four times since we started doing this some 17 years ago. Anyway, congratulations to Mikaela! Her coffee mug is being ordered and will be on the way soon (as is last year’s winner’s mug, Shelley Clemens!).
As far as tonight, believe it or not, I think it might actually snow! I will say that there is a significant bust possibility because of the type system that we are dealing with. A strong cold front is moving across the midwest today, and as it approaches the coast, a low will develop along the front. We’ve been burned pretty bad in the past by systems like this as it is difficult for models to pinpoint where and when the storm will form, but there is undoubtedly solid model agreement that it should happen far enough south and west for central MD to get 2 – 4″ of snow overnight. The area most likely to see accumulating snow is again from I-270/ MD Route 15 and east, with the possibility of heavy snow occurring along the 95 corridor for several hours overnight. There may be some scattered light rain or snow showers up until about 10 or 11PM, but around midnight, the precipitation should become steadier. The front associated with the system has plenty of cold air to work with, so any rain should change to snow quickly once the steady precipitation begins. By morning, all areas will be below freezing and will stay that way through the day as the very cold air is ushered in on strong northwest winds. Tomorrow is going to look very wintry wherever it snows tonight because of the cold temperatures, gusty winds, and blowing snow.
Today is pretty busy for me, but I’ll try to send an update early this evening if anything changes.
The Weather Mill 