Thursday’s Update

Thursday, January 22, 1:30PM

Model trends haven’t been good for a pure snow event, but we are still on pace for a major winter storm. Though the surface is expected to be below freezing throughout central MD for the storm, models have brought in warmer air aloft that would bring sleet, and maybe a lot of it. If I had to make a guess now for central MD, snow begins around 10PM to midnight Saturday night and continues into Sunday. Around sunrise, the snow may be moderate to heavy. After that, it’s a matter of how far north and west the warm air aloft gets and how soon areas flip to sleet. An early guess would be the before the flip to sleet, about 6″ of snow along the bay to as much as 12″ in the colder northern and western areas of Baltimore and Carroll counties where the cold air should hold on longer. Right along the 95 corridor, anywhere from 6 – 9″. We might go into a dry slot during the late afternoon that might cut down on the amount of sleet or freezing rain, but regardless, all precipitation should wrap up by midnight. Again, this is all preliminary and things are certain to change.

Once the storm is over, all attention will turn to the all but guaranteed bitter cold that will be prevalent through the week. Whatever falls may turn to concrete and be around for the week. Additionally, models are suggesting another storm is possible the following weekend, so it seems winter may be here for an extended period. As far as I am concerned, it’s about time.

I’ll update as needed. Hopefully the models come to some solid agreement soon.