This Evening

Friday, December 26, 9:30AM

A cold high pressure has pushed southward from the northeast overnight but with little precipitation to work with, this should not be a big event for the area. Any precipitation should be light, spotty, and hold off until at least sunset. The areas that have the most potential for icy conditions are along and north of I-70, so just be careful if you’re out and encounter any precipitation on untreated surfaces.

No other winter systems are expected as we close out 2025, but there may be some improvements for the new year.

Possible Frozen Precipitation on Friday

Monday, December 22, 5PM

For those traveling for the holiday, it’s an unsettled week weather-wise as a few small systems work their way through the region. The majority of the pre-Christmas portion of the week is looking mainly dry with the exception of the possibility of some overnight rain or snow showers tonight that should have little impact on the roads as temperatures should be at or above freezing into Tuesday morning. If there’s any frozen precip in the AM, it will transition to rain showers early tomorrow, though I think most of the region stays dry and above freezing.

There’s another small system that may bring some mainly morning rain showers on Christmas Day, but all of the precipitation for this should be rain. Again, not much of a worry.

Friday is the only day that I am concerned about regarding travel as another system may impact the area. Recent model trends have been bringing colder air south into central and northern MD making for the possibility of a wintry event, especially for the afternoon and evening. It’s much to early to guess how it evolves, but I’ll keep an eye on it and update as needed.

Happy Holidays!

Snow Contest & Tonight / Early Sunday

Saturday, December 13, 11AM

First things first, the winner of the Snow Contest this year is Mikaela Lidgard with her guess of December 4, at 8AM, and the actual first inch of snow at BWI was recorded on December 5, at noon. To be honest, I was caught off-guard because at my house well north of BWI, there was only a coating, so I was surprised to see that the airport did so much better. But, as has been the case the last few winters, the southern areas have done better than the north Baltimore metro area. I was also surprised that no one in the contest (125 entries) picked December 5th as the first snow as it has occurred three or four times since we started doing this some 17 years ago. Anyway, congratulations to Mikaela! Her coffee mug is being ordered and will be on the way soon (as is last year’s winner’s mug, Shelley Clemens!).

As far as tonight, believe it or not, I think it might actually snow! I will say that there is a significant bust possibility because of the type system that we are dealing with. A strong cold front is moving across the midwest today, and as it approaches the coast, a low will develop along the front. We’ve been burned pretty bad in the past by systems like this as it is difficult for models to pinpoint where and when the storm will form, but there is undoubtedly solid model agreement that it should happen far enough south and west for central MD to get 2 – 4″ of snow overnight. The area most likely to see accumulating snow is again from I-270/ MD Route 15 and east, with the possibility of heavy snow occurring along the 95 corridor for several hours overnight. There may be some scattered light rain or snow showers up until about 10 or 11PM, but around midnight, the precipitation should become steadier. The front associated with the system has plenty of cold air to work with, so any rain should change to snow quickly once the steady precipitation begins. By morning, all areas will be below freezing and will stay that way through the day as the very cold air is ushered in on strong northwest winds. Tomorrow is going to look very wintry wherever it snows tonight because of the cold temperatures, gusty winds, and blowing snow.

Today is pretty busy for me, but I’ll try to send an update early this evening if anything changes.

Saturday Night and Sunday Morning

Friday, December 12, 2:30PM

It’s likely going to snow across much of central MD beginning around midnight Saturday night. The areas most likely to see snow are from the I-270 and Route 15 corridor, and east from there. Models will have a difficult time pinpointing the areas that might see a few hours of moderate snow, but right now it looks to be along the 95 corridor from about Columbia and north and east. It’ll be a quick system and snow should be out of the area during the morning Sunday. Still just guessing, but right now I’d go with a coating along 270 and Route 15 and then increasing as you go east and north. Maybe 1-2” around Columbia, and then 2-3” from Baltimore city and northeast into Harford county.

Again, all just a guess but I’ll update later this evening or early tomorrow.

This Weekend

1PM Wednesday, December 10

There was some talk that a clipper might bring some light snow Friday afternoon, but that is looking pretty bleak as it does not look to have enough moisture to survive the mountains. However, Sunday is looking better for some light accumulations across central MD. Maybe in the 1-2” range, but that’s just an early possibility so I’ll keep an eye it.

By the way, I was surprised to see that BWI revised their snow total from last Friday to 1.0” so there is already a winner in the snow contest! I haven’t had time to look more carefully at the entries but I’ll announce the winner in the next update.

Friday Morning

9:30PM Thursday, December 4

Just a quick update but models continue to trend slightly north with the area of precipitation which means tomorrow morning’s commute across central MD could be pretty icy. Snow should develop before sunrise and untreated surfaces will become icy quickly. Tough call for schools but I think most will delay with a re-evaluation depending on how far north the heavier snow gets. Right now I think a heavy coating along and north of 70, and then more in the southern areas.

It’s not going to be a lot of snow, but with temperatures below freezing, you’ll need extra time in the AM.

If the later model runs show any significant changes, I’ll try to update.

Friday Morning

10AM Thursday, December 4

A light snow event will likely impact the DC area tomorrow morning, but there’s a lot of uncertainty as to how far north into central MD the snow will get. Yesterday I thought the start time would be around noon, but now it seems that precipitation will arrive in the DC area around sunrise. Although it will be a light event, surface temperatures are forecasted to be below freezing, so where it does snow, travel could become dicey.

As of now, the northern extent that has the best chance of seeing snow is as far north as along I-70 including Howard county, southern Baltimore county, and Baltimore City. The chances aren’t great, maybe 50/50, but if it does snow in those areas, start time looks to be around 8AM.

I’ll update later this afternoon or evening.

Possible Friday Early Afternoon Snow

10AM Wednesday, December 3

It’s only a possibility at this point, but there is a chance that a system that most models have staying south of central MD could trend north before Friday. The one model that does have snow reaching the area is the Euro, and that’s always difficult to ignore. It wouldn’t be a lot of snow, maybe a coating to a couple of inches, but it looks to be a cold system with temperatures likely staying below freezing.

Again, only something to keep an eye on for now, but if it happens, Friday’s afternoon and evening commute could be impacted.

Maybe Minor Tuesday Morning Commute Issues

1PM Monday, December 1, 2025

Most models suggest a 5 – 6AM start time tomorrow morning for precipitation to begin across central MD. With some cold air in place, some areas will begin as snow or sleet which could disrupt the morning commute until all precipitation changes to all rain. The areas most likely for concern are along and mainly west of 95 and also along the PA border which aligns with the NWS Winter Weather Advisories. Any accumulations should be light, but with this being the first winter threat of the season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some opening delays in those areas. Just about all areas should be just rain by mid-morning.

If anything changes, I’ll try to update.

The Season’s First Threat?

11:30 AM, Wednesday, November 26

It feels a bit foolish to have a beautiful spring day in late fall and talk about the potential for snow, but after three straight GFS model runs, it should probably be mentioned. The GFS likes next Tuesday as our first legit snow threat for the season, and though it is the only model showing it, the Euro isn’t too far off. The latest GFS run (running now) is a snow to rain event, but last night’s run was a nice little snow event to kick off the season, and the overnight run was a legit crushing. I don’t have time now to delve into specifics, nor do I think it’s really necessary as I think this will more likely be cold rain than snow, but I’ll update as needed.

Wishing everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!