Monday, February 17, 11AM
From about Wednesday to Saturday of last week I was getting texts from friends asking if we are really getting x number of inches of snow this week, where x was anywhere between 12 and 24. Knowing that the long range models of the two week period leading up to this week have been consistently pointing to around February 20th as potentially a phenomenal pattern for an east coast snow storm, my standard answer was, “Maybe, but I doubt it.” Secretly, I was hopeful but I also know the unstable temperament of the Mid-Atlantic snow gods (and I would have capitalized the g-word if not fear of retribution of the masses), I downplayed any snow maps mainly because it was still a week away. By Thursday evening, we were coming into the range of global models (mainly the gfs and the euro), which is around 120 hours or five days out. This is where I believe accuracy really begins to improve. No model had shown anything consistent up to this point, but the players were on the table. A wave along the southern stream was going to approach from the southwest and an upper level low was diving southeast along the trough carved out by the passage of a recent cold front (that’s last night’s cold front). All we need is the timing to be exactly perfect for a phase of the two systems in the perfect location to our southwest and the storm would perfectly negatively tilt and perfectly tuck into the eastern seaboard in a location perfectly to our southeast and, voila, snowstorm! I hope that you get the sarcasm. Big snow here is not easy, especially in a La Nina. But the potential was there.
Before Thursday night, no model had shown anything big for us, but the euro and gfs began sniffing out the potential as an earlier run on Thursday had shown a decent hit for areas well south and east. Regular readers might want to know what the nam said to this point, but the nam is a short range model and only goes out to 84 hours, so it was snoring comfortably on the recliner not in range yet.
Late Thursday evening, first up on the 0z (7PM) model runs was the gfs and it showed a decent hit for the eastern shore as the system was a bit too south and east. Still, a 6″ snow event is nothing to toss and with many days of tracking still to come, it was a good run. Then the euro came out an hour or so later and showed the storm we all had hoped to see. A general 12″ plus across the region. Still, it was just one run and too early to get hopeful. But on Friday, the euro consistently from run to run showed a hit and it was hard not to get excited. On the other hand, the American gfs was floundering inconsistently from run to run, apparently scrolling its phone while stopped at a traffic light that had turned green 30 seconds earlier. Even without the gfs on board, when the euro is locked in to a solution for several runs, it’s hard to not believe it. But I didn’t want to jump the gun so I was waiting for gfs to give in. On Saturday morning, that seemed to be happening. The gfs wasn’t a direct hit, but it was definitely a step in the right direction and looked a lot like the euro. It was then that I pulled the trigger and made the last post here, albeit a vague post.
The vagueness was deliberate. We were still over four days away and snow heartbreak is not therapy I can afford, so I wanted to be patient. Now, I don’t know what knucklehead went out and tuned up their snowblower or rushed the liquor store for their vodka and diet coke, but since that post on Saturday morning, things have deteriorated to an absolute shutout for central MD. And I mean a big, fat, zero, goose egg, not a single flake. Even the nam which was now in range woke up and showed a miss last night.
But here’s the thing, the potential is still there. Yes, it is a complete long-shot. And I mean, nearly impossible long-shot. I don’t think there’s any way to bring this back to the double digit fantasy maps from last week, especially because it’s only three days away, but it’s past mid February, and though it may snow in March, let’s be honest and admit that by then we are all ready for spring. If it’s going to snow any more this winter, let’s get it in the next two weeks and then move on. So, I’m going to keep an eye on this present non-storm and post periodic updates beginning with today’s 12z cycles of the nam and gfs in the hopes we can salvage something that least covers the grass one more time. If you’ve read this far, you’ll be happy to know that in the time that it has taken me to write this, the nam and gfs 12z model outputs are in. With no football yesterday, the unusually clear-eyed nam takes a notable northwest jump giving southern MD a modest but plowable event, but not enough to get central MD in the game. The gfs, still ugly, apparently hasn’t heard the car behind it honking and is still sitting at the green light.
Hopefully there will be better news when the euro comes out in a couple of hours.
The Weather Mill 