Wednesday Night and Thursday Morning

Monday, February 3, 8PM

Yesterday I said that Wednesday afternoon might be a messy commute, but precipitation looks to hold off until later in the day. The main batch of mixed precipitation looks to occur late Wednesday night and early Thursday. It doesn’t look to be a lot before Thursday AM, but if the models are right, it’ll be enough to cause icing on non treated surfaces. Some schedule changes look possible for Thursday. I’ll update again tomorrow and take a stab at a more specific time table.

Beyond this system, the next few weeks are looking extremely active, and maybe in a very good way.

Winter Reset

Sunday, February 2, Noon

Now that our recent pattern has broken down, we can talk about how cold its been. This past January was 4.0 degrees below normal at BWI, which really isn’t that cold, but it was the coldest month since 2014. Unfortunately, precipitation was much below normal, so we are still below normal for snowfall. The only decent snow was on January 6, but because of the cold, we had snow cover for about three weeks, and some remnant snow piles are still around.

So, now that we are two-thirds through meteorological winter, what’s next? If you haven’t heard, the rodent Phil saw his shadow this morning so folklore says we have six weeks of winter to go. I wouldn’t read too much into that since over his 138 year history, an early spring has only been predicted 21 times. But, over the next couple of days, we will slide to the south side of a warm and cold air boundary with tomorrow and Tuesday being a prelude to spring. Enjoy it because the front looks to slip south Tuesday night as a wave of low pressure approaches, bringing much colder air and a chance of mixed precipitation on Wednesday. It’s too early to for details, but Wednesday afternoon and evening could be sloppy. I’ll update as things come into better focus.

Long term and the remainder of February, the next couple of weeks look seasonal with temperatures and precipitation averaging around normal as we oscillate back and forth on either side of the boundary. There will be several chances at some snow, but it will depend on what side of the boundary we are on. First chance is on Wednesday. By mid month, the early January pattern looks to reload and models are suggesting that winter ends on a cold and possibly snowy note. Way too early to get our hopes up, but with less than 4 weeks until March, let’s hope they’re right.

More on Wednesday’s potential tomorrow.

Some Light Snow Possible This Morning

Friday, January 24, 6AM

A little system is moving across the northern areas of central MD this morning and may cause some snow showers to develop across northern and even central MD. They won’t amount to much, and with so much salt on the roads, they should be fine. Mainly watch for snow covered icy patches on untreated surfaces.

Temperatures begin to moderate through the weekend and early next week is going to feel like spring with just seasonal temperatures.

Nothing New To Add

Sunday, January 19, 10AM

Cold air is slowly creeping southeast this morning, but almost all areas are above freezing. Snow is falling in Carroll and Frederick counties, but along the 95 corridor it’ll likely be rain for awhile. The heaviest precip looks to fall from about 1 – 5PM, and I think that’ll be snow for most areas, and possibly heavy snow. Regardless, I don’t expect the biggest problem today to be snow but rather the falling temperatures. It’s not going to have to drop below freezing for long for surfaces to ice up so plan accordingly.

After the front clears this evening, bitterly cold temperatures for the week ahead and only a slight chance of any snow as a system develops to the south mid week. Be careful if you’re out this afternoon.

Sunday Update

Saturday, January 18, 7:30PM

Nothing new to say other than I am so over of the Chiefs. Anyway, some form of precipitation develops across the area mid-morning tomorrow and continues through the afternoon. I kind of think we are going to start as snow but temperatures will be above freezing for a few hours at the onset so until temperatures fall below freezing, the morning should be fine. Just know that temperatures are going to fall throughout the day so whatever falls is going to get icy very quickly. Again, best advice is get done anything that needs doing by about noon and settle in for the day.

I’ll be up and update in the AM.

Sunday

Preface

If after reading the update, you feel like you haven’t learned anything, it’s deliberate because confidence is low on specifics. My official first forecast for tomorrow is that it’s a good day to get any errands or activities wrapped up by late morning and then hover around a fire for the remainder of the day.

Saturday, January 18, 9AM

Hopefully we all got a chance to enjoy the relatively milder temperatures because the bottom is about to fall out. During the day tomorrow arctic air will begin spilling into the area and for the MLK holiday and well into the shortened work week, temperatures will struggle to reach even 20 degrees for highs, and some areas will likely fall below zero for the first time in years. I’ve been a pretty quiet regarding tomorrow because the snow portion is a tricky forecast, but the coming cold air is guaranteed. The difficulty in the forecast for Sunday for the majority of the area is the timing of the arrival of the cold air, so I’m going to keep this short and worry about details in later updates as the models come in during the day today.

Precipitation will arrive tomorrow morning from southwest to northeast across the area from 7 – 9AM. If it starts as snow, you’re locked in to 4 – 6″. If it’s raining, obviously the amount of snow will be determined by when the colder air arrives. I think areas west of 95 changeover by noon and east of 95 to the bay between noon and 2PM. Regardless, by about noon until about 5PM, the precip could become moderate to heavy. It’s a quick moving system, but I think all areas west of the bay across central MD get 2 – 4″ by the time things wrap up, and areas that are currently under a Winter Storm Warning (Frederick, Carroll, and northern Baltimore counties) end up in the 4 – 6″ range.

I’ll send out an update this evening between the upset in Kansas City and the taming of the Lions.

This Evening and Sunday

Just a quick update for today, but there may be a period of light snow for a few hours this evening between about 5 and 9PM that may cause some icy conditions, especially on untreated surfaces. Most roads have a ton of lingering salt but with temperatures well below freezing, slick conditions are possible in the steadier snow.

Also, models are not to a consensus, but a possible minor to moderate event on Sunday afternoon and evening is possible. Really early to say how it will play out, but an early afternoon start and something along the lines of 1 – 3 inches by Sunday evening is on the table. I’ll update again tomorrow.

Be safe this evening.

Unsettled Weekend and Then Frigid

Wednesday, January 15, 1PM

First, we officially have a winner in the Snow Contest! The first inch of snow was recorded at BWI airport at 4AM on January 6th, so Mack wins this year’s contest with a guess of 4:30AM. Congratulations, Mack, and if you’re reading this, please send contact info to me by emailing theweathermill@gmail.com.

As far as the weather is concerned, the snow from nearly 10 days ago is still on the ground which demonstrates how cold it has been since we started the new year. So far, January is running about 4 degrees below normal, and over the next week it’s going to only get colder, especially early next week.

Regarding snow potential, an Alberta clipper system to our north tomorrow will drag its associated cold front across the area so a few snow showers are not out of the question for tomorrow afternoon and evening, but it should not cause any issues. Behind the front is just more cold, dry, and blustery conditions, so right now there are no big snow events in our immediate future.

The good news is that if you are tired of the cold, by Friday afternoon and through Saturday, the temperatures should begin to moderate to where they might actually get to our normal high of the low 40’s. Precipitation potential for the weekend is still not clear, but maybe some rain Saturday evening and maybe some rain to snow Sunday depending on how quickly the cold air returns. The bad news is there is no question that the cold is returning. The MLK holiday will be very cold with temperatures not rising out of the 20’s during the day on Monday, and it gets worse. Lows Tuesday morning are expected to be in the single digits and the highs will likely not get out of the teens. It’s going to be so cold and windy that I am concerned that there may be schedule changes as a result of sub zero wind chill temperatures through much of the day Tuesday.

Precipitation is unsettled through the period, but there look to be several opportunities for snowfall over the next 7 – 10 days. Sunday/Monday is still not a done deal, and then depending on your model du jour, something may develop midweek and/or at the end of next week. Hopefully I’ll have cause to update.

Light Snow Tonight

Friday, January 10, 11AM

A storm system to our south will graze the area and bring some light snow beginning around midnight tonight and ending before sunrise tomorrow. Accumulations will be on the lighter side with about an inch across central MD, maybe a little less to the north and a little more possible to the south. It’s been below freezing most of the week and every flake will stick, so be careful if you’re doing any travel early tomorrow.

Next week looks chilly and dry.

This Evening

Monday, January 6, 6PM

Just a quick update, but snow is redeveloping this evening as the upper level low crosses through the area and transfers to the coast. This part of any storm is difficult to forecast but radar suggests that we are in for several hours of off and on fluffy snow that could add an additional inch or two. Everything should wrap up by about midnight. Temperatures for the remainder of the week will be below normal with another possible system approaching Saturday.

And, finally, there was a winner in the Snow Contest today, but need to wait for the BWI daily summary to determine that time it occurred. Enjoy the snow!