It’s Not Over!

If you like spring weather, be sure to take advantage of this weekend’s warmer temperatures because winter will be making a return, and possibly for an extended period. I can’t say for sure that a lot of snow will be in the cards, but all mid to long-range models say we are heading into a decent patter for both cold and snow.

The weekend looks cloudy and mostly dry (the exception being a shower or two early Saturday) with well above normal temperatures, and then things begin changing with storm on Tuesday. I think that will be a rain even for us, but by President’s Day weekend, we should be tracking snow again. Hopefully, good times ahead for snow.

We Reeled One In!

Friday, Jan 19, 430AM

By the time most will be reading this, they may have surmised that the models are playing catch up with this system. The short term mesoscale model runs this morning were a thing of beauty and enough for the NWS to hoist Winter Storm Warnings across central MD including Montgomery, Howard, and all the MD/PA border counties from Frederick east including Baltimore. We can now expect 4 – 5″ of snow in those areas, and possibly more. Models suggest that a heavy band of snow will set up somewhere across central MD and if so, those areas could do even better.

At 4AM, light snow has commenced for most and it will become steadier and heavier through the morning commute. I’m secretly thinking we might even do a little better than what the models are suggesting now, but I could be just getting greedy. Regardless, I am delighted to see two things as a result of this storm. First and foremost, that it can and will still snow here. The past two years have been brutal for people that enjoy winter, so this past week has been pretty good, and frankly, therapeutic. Secondly, I really enjoy that in spite of all the advances and technology in data gathering and modeling, snow can still sneak up on us. It’s nice to recognize that we can’t control everything even if it’s just snow.

Anyway, after today’s storm, a fresh blast of cold air for the weekend and then a January thaw looks to commence. Hopefully the pattern reloads in early February and we can do another week or two of real winter. If anything changes today, I’ll update.

Friday

Thursday, Jan 18, 11AM

The system for tomorrow was on life support through this morning, but the midday model runs seem to be reviving it. Most notably, the storm is looking like it may take a track that is a little more south than recent model runs which would place us in a better area for cold and precipitation. Snow is expected to develop early tomorrow before sunrise and continue through the morning. It should not be a heavy snow, but with temperatures this week well below freezing, anything that falls may present problems. As far as accumulations are concerned, right now anywhere from 1″ to the south closer to DC, and up to 4″ along the MD/PA border. Most of us in central MD can expect 2-3″. If the evening model runs look differently, I will update this evening.

Looking Ahead to Friday

Wednesday, Jan 17, 10AM

It’s been a good week if you like snow and winter weather. Obviously, I love falling snow, but I also enjoy when the snow sticks around for awhile. A fresh arctic air mass after a snow is what I would order every time because as far as I am concerned, if it’s going to be winter, it might as well winter.

Anyway, not much to say about the system on Friday because there isn’t a consensus on how it plays out. Right now it looks like snow begins around sunrise on Friday and continues into the afternoon with a general 1-3″ across the region, with the lesser amounts to the south and higher amounts north. Much of the forecast will focus on whether the system tracks to our south, right over us, or to the north. To maximize our snow potential, we need it to track to the south and right now most models have it too far north to bring much snow, so it’s too soon to say how it plays out.

I’ll keep an eye on it and update from to time.

Upgrade to Winter Storm Warning

Monday, Jan 15, 11PM

Not only did we get the upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning, but it’s official! It’s taken nearly two years but BWI reported it’s first one inch snow of the year making Snowflake66 the winner in this year’s Snow Contest! She had today’s date and a time of 4PM, and the National Weather Service confirmed the first inch in their 7PM report so after two long years we finally have a winner. Congratulations!!

For the rest of the night, snow will pick up in intensity for the next several hours bringing another 3-4″ to most areas in central MD for a total of 4-6″ for most of the area, but some higher amounts are possible north of Baltimore. Still some uncertainty regarding how things will play out in the morning, but short term models are suggesting that a developing coastal low may prolong precipitation in the area well into the morning. I’m skeptical, but regardless, this has turned out to be a terrific event so I’m taking advantage and heading back outside for a little whiskey walk. Hopefully we get to do this all over again on Friday.

Later Today into Tuesday Morning

Monday, Jan 15, 11 AM

First, kudos to the NWS for putting out a special weather statement yesterday for the potential of the coating of snow that verified this morning. I was pleasantly surprised to see that the over-running moisture ahead of the system last night was able to overcome the very dry atmosphere to give us a wintry scene today. It’s been a long time that we’ve had a day where you look outside and it feels like winter. Fortunately, this is just the beginning.

For the remainder of the day, cloudy skies, cold temperatures, and the occasional light snow or snizzle will continue through the late morning and early afternoon. By 3 or 4PM, steady, light snow will develop in the metro corridor and probably cause icy conditions on some roads for any holiday commuters this evening. There may be another lull this evening, but during the overnight hours snow will redevelop and may become moderate for a few hours with accumulations expected in the 2 – 4″ range across the area. Winter Weather Advisories are posted throughout the region through tonight into early tomorrow morning.

Interestingly, as I type this, some of the midday model runs are being released and are actually an improvement for much of the area. Both the nam and gfs show an area of 4-5″ across the 95 corridor, so I’ll be curious to see if the NWS changes some of the advisories to warnings and up the totals a smidge. Regardless, the last snowfall at BWI that was at least an inch was nearly two years ago on January 28, 2022 (nearly 720 days ago!) so whatever falls over the next 18 hours we should definitely savor.

If there are any surprises or changes, I’ll update later.

Possibly a Busy Week of Winter

An arctic front will cross the area by afternoon today bringing high wind, a possible lunch time snow shower, and much colder temperatures. Blustery conditions continue through the rest of the holiday weekend with a passing flurry from time to time leading into Monday night and early Tuesday’s possible first snow event of the season. Well, actually, it would be the first in two seasons so fingers crossed that it continues to head in the right direction.

The Monday night system looked much better on the gfs model a few days ago and then completely fizzled out, but a heartbeat has returned and now other models are coming around to the same idea. If they are correct in their output, then light snow would develop in central MD after midnight Monday night and continue into the morning. Presently, it does not look like a major event but with cold temperatures in place, Tuesday morning’s commute would be impacted. Again, this is prefaced on if the gfs and nam models are correct. Hopefully the European model comes around today. I’ll update later today or early Monday morning.

After Tuesday, cold, dry conditions continue through the week until a possible storm system approaches the area Friday. A lot of uncertainty with that system, so more on that later. For now, I’m just happy that there is a chance of a region-wide accumulating (albeit minor) snow event.

Another Rain-Maker and then Finally Winter?

Noon, Thursday, January 11

Fortunately, the system for tomorrow evening into early Saturday should not be nearly as wet as the recent storm. Totals from this past Tuesday and Wednesday were in the 2 – 3″ range, and by Saturday morning we will be looking at another .5 – 1″, but I don’t think it will cause any where near the issues we had earlier this week.

Since Thanksgiving, the sub tropical jet has been delivering across central MD with rain totals in excess of 10 inches, which is fairly typical for an El Nino, and if long term models are correct, the trend for wet weather will continue. Making things interesting is the arrival of colder air in the wake of tomorrow’s system on Saturday and Sunday which could set the stage for our first region-wide snow in a couple of years. The GFS model is pointing to Tuesday as a cold and snowy day across the region, but be warned, it doesn’t have consensus from the other models. I think it’s too early to say how things play out, but it certainly bears watching.

Hopefully things still hold potential tomorrow and if so, I’ll send out an update.

The El Nino is Flexing

Monday, Jan 8, 12PM

Any drought conditions that are leftover from the region-wide dry fall are certainly going to be erased over the next week thanks to the sub tropical jet. Two major storms will impact the area over the next week beginning tomorrow, and unfortunately they are both going to be rain.

For tomorrow, rain will develop around sunrise and become heavy in the afternoon and evening. To make a crummy day even worse, the rain will accompanied by gusty winds. Tomorrow evening looks to be the worst for both the heaviest rain and highest wind gusts with 2-3″ of rain expected by Wednesday morning and wind gusts expected to be in the 40 to as much as 50 mph range tomorrow afternoon and evening. Flood conditions and power outages are likely and the NWS has issued flood watches and high wind advisories for the entire area. Obviously, be careful when traveling tomorrow through early Wednesday.

After tomorrow’s deluge, a second storm is expected to develop late this week and take a similar track. If so, we can expect more of the same late Friday and early Saturday. Beyond that, we might finally get into a better winter pattern for the end of January and February, but it’s getting tough to stay hopeful.

We need some snow.

Slick Conditions Today

Saturday, Jan 6, 11AM

If you’re in the eastern areas and rain is falling this morning, then you will likely stay rain for the remainder of the day. In the areas that a mix of sleet and snow is falling, which is most of the area, temperatures above will continue to rise and gradually change what is falling to rain, but before then, things could get dicey. When the steadier precipitation arrives soon, some areas will go to heavy snow as the column above cools from falling precipitation. In those areas, which I think will be right along and west of 95, there could be a quick accumulation of an inch or two in a few hours. For most of us, I think we should be all rain by about 3 or 4PM with the precip ending this evening. Further west where the transition to rain will be later or not at all, there will be accumulations of 3 – 6″. That is along the I-15 corridor. Regardless, be careful if you’re out today as conditions will vary by location.

As I type this now in Pikesville, rates are picking up and potato chips are falling from the sky. Hopefully that continues through the afternoon.