Be on the eye for icy spots this morning. Nathan Chen would have been proud of the pirouette I did on the steps this morning taking out the recycling.

It probably won’t happen, but I just wanted folks to be aware that there is a slight chance of light freezing rain for Monday mornings commute mainly for areas east of 95. The NWS issued the following special weather statement which sums up the potential.

…POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREA AND FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND MONDAY MORNING… There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Monday morning commute. A period of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain is POSSIBLE (a 30 percent chance) Monday morning across the Baltimore Metropolitan area, northeast Maryland, and for central and southern Maryland east of Interstate 95, with a light glaze possible on area roads. If this threat does materialize during the Monday morning rush-hour, many roads could quickly turn icy. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays. If commuting Monday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options. Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode

Friday is looking more and more like it will just be wet for most of central MD as it is looking more likely that the precipitation will end before the temperatures get cold enough to cause any problems. The exception is areas well north and west but it’s still a ways out so no point in discussing details.

Hopefully everyone can get out this afternoon and take advantage of the brief winter respite before rain moves in tomorrow, and colder conditions for the weekend.

A much deserved reprieve from the cold in the next couple of days, and then a strong arctic front approaches the area Thursday and Friday. Tomorrow and Wednesday look fairly decent for early February and temperatures will feel mild compared to what we have seen recently. By Thursday afternoon, an area of low pressure will ride along the front and approach the area from the southwest bringing rain beginning late Thursday into Friday. We are going to be on the southeast and warm side of the front through at least Thursday night so there’s no question that the precipitation will be rain.

Beyond Thursday night is where the models diverge. Pre-sunrise Friday and Friday afternoon need to be monitored for the possibility of the strong cold front passing through the area and dropping temperatures very quickly. We do not do well when we start as relatively warm rain and then count on cold air to arrive, so at this time I’d say the chances are slim that this becomes a big deal. The only reason I bring it up is because the model that has done the best this winter in the 5 day range is the GFS, and what it has shown for a couple of consecutive runs today is pretty ugly. For both the midday and evening runs, the gfs has shown a pretty significant ice storm developing across the area Friday morning and afternoon. And no one likes an ice storm. There is presently no other model support so hopefully, the GFS comes to its senses overnight and we can have have a quiet work week.

I’ll update tomorrow.

The nam and gfs midday runs are in and both point to a 1 – 3″ snow for the 95 corridor this afternoon and evening. Temperatures are at or above freezing in most areas other than the northern tier along the PA border, where they are a little colder. The models suggest precipitation moving in during the early afternoon between 2 and 3PM, however the radar is suggesting that things might get started a bit earlier. Once the precipitation begins, the temperature will fall as the lower levels near the surface saturate and any mixed precip will change to snow. The snow should continue well into the evening accompanied by cold and blustery conditions overnight and Saturday.

This still needs to monitored as some surprises are still possible.

Still a super close call for the metro corridor between an inconvenience snow and a plowable event. It’s really going to come down to where the storm tracks and how fast it intensifies. Fifty miles east and it’s a nothing burger, but fifty miles west and it’s game on. One of the short range models suggest that 4-6 inches is possible along the 95 corridor, while the more reliable gfs and euro say 1-2”. The NWS has wisely put their forecast in the more conservative 1-2” camp along the 95 corridor, less to the west, and increasing to 2-4” closer to the bay. The eastern shore has Winter Storm Warnings and even Blizzard Warnings at the beaches for up to a foot of snow. If I was able to, there is no doubt I’d be chasing this down at the beaches. It’s going to be a great storm for them, and an epic storm along the New England coast.

But for us, precipitation will develop around 3PM in central MD and continue into the night. We may start as a mix of snow and rain but should change to snow pretty quickly as colder air aloft filters down to the surface. The NWS forecast looks very reasonable with 1-2” along the corridor and more to the east along the bay. Unfortunately, there will probably be enough snow to cause schedule changes this afternoon and evening, especially with the lack of confidence in the forecast. Not to mention this is going to be a very cold storm and temperatures will fall into the 20’s quickly, so anywhere that gets precipitation is going to be icy once the sun sets.

I’ll update again early this afternoon as things are developing with any last minute thoughts.

There is still some model disagreement, but this looks to be, once again, an eastern shore event with only the chance of light snow across central MD. For areas west of the bay there isn’t much hope unless you’re in Anne Arundel, Calvert or St. Mary’s counties where accumulating snow is possible in AA and likely south. For those of us near the 95 corridor and areas to the west, we have to hang our hopes on the planes the NWS sent out this evening to gather data. Hopefully they found some new information that supposedly will be ingested by the late night model runs that will show the storm closer to the coast. That’s highly unlikely, so I think the only weather headline for most of us going into the weekend will be the cold temperatures , gusty winds, and blowing salt from the roads.

I’ll update in the AM, but it’s looking to me that if you want to see any appreciable snow this weekend, head across the Bay Bridge. The beaches should have blizzard conditions late tomorrow and tomorrow night.

A quiet weather week until possibly Friday evening. A cold front will cross the area tomorrow morning bringing gusty winds and a reinforcing shot of cold air, but the work week looks dry, but cold. Later in the week, a storm develops south of the area, and until recently models had the storm passing well east and out to sea with no impacts. However, recent trends suggest that the storm may be closer to the coast and could bring some snow to the area Friday night into Saturday. It may end up as a non-event, but at least it’s something to track. I’ll update periodically.

Pretty big bust from the models for an event so close. Even last night’s late runs showed the cold air arriving much sooner than it did this morning, but the front was slow to cross the area, and any cold aloft didn’t mix down to the surface quickly enough. So the end result was mostly rain. I should have known better to believe that we’d get a moderate event from a cold front passage and leftover moisture because it is a situation that we normally do not do well. But, the gfs had been on such a roll recently, that I took it for granted. Note to self, when it comes to snow in central MD, we can always find a way to fail.

Tomorrow night’s storm is modeled to be well south and east of the area with no impacts for us, but I’ll keep watching. If the models messed up this morning, maybe they can settle the score, though it is extremely unlikely.

I said I’d update but there are no changes worth mentioning. But do a snow dance for Friday, though I think it’s hopeless.