Tuesday, December 15, 7AM

The model runs over the past 24 hours have been extremely disappointing if you’re hoping for snow. Instead of an eastward jog, the models have brought the storm so far west that warm air intrudes very quickly at all levels and it’s pretty much a wash out for most of central MD. Sure, the normally colder northern and western areas see snow and sleet, but for the majority along 95 and even west to Frederick, it’s pretty ugly.

I’m going to wait until the midday model runs to take go into any details because with each model run (every 6 hours) things have gotten worse. There’s no sense in wondering if the patient can walk until we get the bleeding to stop.

Monday, December 14, 6:30AM

First, regarding today and the Winter Weather Advisories for the western and northern tier counties, temperatures have warmed a little overnight in these areas, so the predominant precipitation will be rain. Colder air will move in during the afternoon and will change rain to snow in the favored areas well west and right along the Mason-Dixon line in Carroll and Frederick counties, but any accumulation should be light and mainly on grassy surfaces.

As far as Wednesday is concerned, models are pretty consistent with a snow to mix (or rain) back to snow for the 95 corridor. Eastern areas closer to the bay will see more rain, and areas well west of 95 and north of I 70 have the best chance of seeing mostly, if not all snow. Winter Storm Watches have been posted for counties west of the fall line in central MD (pretty much west of I 95), but it’s still too early to know for certain how it all plays out. Totally guessing here, but if it played out like some of the models show now, for eastern areas closer to the bay and southern areas closer to DC, snow to rain to snow, 1 – 3″ total, along 95, snow to sleet/rain to snow, 3 – 6″ total, and west of 29, snow to snot to snow, 6+”. For areas well west and north (Brunswick, Hagerstown, Frederick, Westminster, etc) are going to get clobbered. All just preliminary guesses.

More later.

Sunday, December 13, 2PM

Over the past 24 hours, I have been on a roller coaster watching models give us a foot or more of snow only to take most of it away 6 hours later on a different run. There really isn’t much to add today compared to yesterday’s update. Both GFS and European models still show a winter storm for the area beginning in the late morning or early afternoon on Wednesday. We still don’t know what track the storm will take, so we don’t know how much snow any area will get, however, I think the biggest takeaway from the runs over the past 24 hours is that for most of us, this will probably not be an all snow event. It looks like we will all start as snow, then mix and possibly change to sleet and/or rain, then eventually back to snow. I still think that ultimately this will verify as a warning event for most areas west of the bay in central MD (5 or more inches of snow/sleet), but it’s still almost 3 days away, so we’ve got a ways to go before we can make any confident guesses to specific accumulations.

I’ll update either late this evening or tomorrow morning.

2PM Saturday, December 12

The midday model runs are complete and all say that Wednesday is primed to be a wintry day across central MD. The GFS and the European models are showing a major storm across the area, but both also bring mixing issues to the 95 corridor so it’s tough to make a call right now on total snow accumulations. Both models agree that moisture will be abundant. As far as how much snow falls will depend a lot on what happens with Monday’s rain storm. We want that storm to pass, move up east of New England, and strengthen around Newfoundland to help push cold air down the coast.

Although it’s very warm today, cold air will be plentiful and move into the area late Monday and Tuesday. Again, it’s early, but precipitation should move in early Wednesday and begin in most areas as snow. After that, it’s a matter of how close the storm tracks to us that determines how much warm air gets brought in overhead, especially from the 95 corridor and points east. If I had to wager a guess right now, I think most areas west of the bay will reach Winter Storm Warning criteria, which is 5 or more inches of snow and sleet, but that’s an early, early guess. A small shift north and we get all rain, and likewise, a small shift south, we get more snow. Maybe much more.

I’ll update again tomorrow.

Not even two weeks into December and though we haven’t had any snow yet, the fact that we have a couple of systems to track makes me feel that this winter will be different from any of our recent debacles. Although the Pacific is classified as a La Nina (generally, not a good state for the Mid Atlantic), modeled upper air patterns continue to progress to more favorable conditions for snow lovers. In fact, if models are to be believed, by late December and early January, we could be looking at our first “blocky” pattern during winter in several years. That’s still a couple of weeks away at best, so for now we have two systems to watch.

This first is Monday, and though some of the lesser models show snow for the area, I think it’s just going to be too warm for any substantial frozen precipitation across central MD. We might get lucky and see a few slush bombs mixed in from time to time in the heavier bursts of rain, but for the most part I think Monday is literally a wash, and any snow will likely be confined to the far western ski areas in Garrett and Tucker counties.

Wednesday’s system is more interesting and though I think it will be tough to get snow across the entire area, the areas north and west of 95 could do pretty well. It’s too early to get into the details as each model run will be different this far out, but I’ll update over the weekend and also post the Snow Contest spreadsheet.

Today’s rain storm was initially expected to wash out at least half of our weekend, but over the past couple of days the storm has progressed much quicker than previously modeled, so now the weekend looks pretty good. It will be blustery and chilly, but at least it will be dry. More importantly, because this system is going to be quick to exit the area, it is providing some spacing between another disturbance that will cross the area Monday afternoon. If that system is able to get more organized, then we might be looking at a light snow event across the area Monday afternoon and evening. Right now I think the chances of that are slim for central MD as models currently show areas well-south of DC towards Fredericksburg and Richmond having the best chance of seeing some mixed precipitation or even mangled snow, but the models have been trending in the right direction for us, so we should keep an eye on it. Hopefully we get the “north trend” that we have enjoyed from other snow events in the past, but wherever it ends up snowing, it looks to be a light event.

Finally, don’t forget to enter the Snow Contest which is open for entries and edits until Sunday evening. If you want to do an edit and received an email confirmation of your entry, do the edit there. If you did not receive an email confirmation, enter again and put the word “Edit” in with your name so I can replace your previous entry. Good luck!

We are back for another year! And, yes, it’s been a crazy year, but hopefully things will be improving sooner rather than later. I’m hoping that the same can be said for any snow chances, though the prolonged fall weather has been outstanding for doing outdoor activities. I have been torn wishing for cold and snow, or hoping that we can continue having great weather to get outside and safely do activities that winter may not allow. However, regardless of what we want, when it comes to weather, we get what we get, and it looks like over the next week or two things will quickly change to a more favorable winter pattern. Surprisingly, in spite of the prognosis of most winter forecasts for above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall, mid December is looking favorable for below normal temperatures and higher snow chances. It’s impossible to know if that will actually bring snow, or if that will be a persistent pattern for the entire winter, but if it’s going to be cold and snowy, then I vote to have it for at least the holiday season.

So, although it’s a couple of weeks later than normal, let’s start off another year of the Weather Mill with the snow contest. For those new to the contest, you pick the day and time that you think the first one inch snow of the year will occur at BWI airport. In years past, I have offered to come out and shovel your walkway, but in most years there has not been a good enough snow or it melted too fast, so beginning this year there will be a “to be determined” trophy.

Also new this year is a Google form for easy entry. Just follow the link below and select your date and time. I will accept entries through at least next Sunday, December 6th. Who knows, maybe by then we will have a legitimate storm to track.

Enter Snow Contest Here

Here is the list of past winners.  Asterisks indicate that I have not shoveled your winnings. Maybe we get a few surprise blizzards this year that make it worthwhile for me to catch up.

• 2019 – 2020 Matt Berkowitz*, Tiffany Carmean*, and Stacy Cashmark*
• 2018 – 2019 Stacy Cashmark *
• 2017 – 2018 Rigged event won by me
• 2016 – 2017 Sue Carlson
• 2015 – 2016  Carol Collins
• 2014 – 2015  Zenon Fernandes * and Martin Vandenberge *
• 2013 – 2014  Margaret Hunt *
• 2012 – 2013  Katie Lovell *
• 2011 – 2012  Frank Eastham *
• 2010 – 2011  Pat Pecor *
• 2009 – 2010  Barb Gilmartin and Carrie Quintavella
• 2008 – 2009  Carol A. Collins
• 2007 – 2008  Carla Stocksdale

Friday, January 17th, 2:30PM

Very cold and dry air has settled over the area and that is going make for a tricky Saturday of driving when warmer air and precipitation arrives tomorrow morning.  Heavy precipitation is not expected, but in these situations, light freezing rain is the worst because it accumulates.

I think the first batch of precip will be a one to two hour period of snow between 7 and 10AM tomorrow that will bring a quick coating to an inch of fluffy snow.  Then there will be a break for a couple of hours, and then another steadier batch of precip sometime around or shortly after noon.  That precipitation may start as snow, but will change to something else depending on location.  For those closest to the bay and east of 95, you will change the quickest from snow or sleet to freezing rain, and then plain rain.  Along and west of 95 will hold on to freezing temperatures longer and will probably have an extended period of sleet, then freezing rain, and eventually just rain.  For those north of 70 up to the MD/PA line, temperatures may not get above freezing for the duration of the event, so you may end up with 2-3″ of snow followed by sleet, and eventually freezing rain or drizzle.

For all areas, expect icy travel conditions before noon.  Along 95, until at least mid afternoon, and all day for northern areas.  The air mass over us is very cold (dew points are hovering around 10 degrees now) and so the warm air is going to struggle scouring out the cold air at the surface.

I’ll update again tomorrow morning before things get going.

 

Friday, January 17th, 8AM

For those that have events scheduled tomorrow, my guess is that there is going to just be enough ice, hype, or road brine to mess up your plans.  I’ll wait until the midday model runs to see if there’s any consensus (presently, there isn’t), but right now I think that there will be a period of snow or sleet between 8 and 10 AM that could bring a dusting/coating to the 95 corridor, then a break, and then steadier precipitation in the form of sleet and freezing rain moves in between 11AM and noon.  That’ll continue into the afternoon with frozen stuff changing to rain from 95 and points east, but lingering as frozen longer the further west and north you are, all coming to an end in the evening.

If the models that are currently showing a much drier system are correct, then I’ll be wrong, but regardless (I almost wrote irregardless just to toy with John Sharbaugh), I think a lot of tomorrow’s scheduled events will be postponed/cancelled.

I’ll update this afternoon.

Thursday, January 16th, 7AM

What a few days ago was looking like a nice morning snow thump to sleet and freezing rain on Saturday morning, has dissolved into muck.  Although all models have backed down from a significant winter event in the immediate area, it still needs to be watched because the gfs and nam models still bring frozen precipitation into the area, but the euro is very different with very little precipitation and relatively warmer temperatures.  The nam is the most aggressive with precip and temperatures, keeping much of the area below freezing for the day (no surprise on either of those because the nam is notoriously too wet and cold), while the gfs warms the surface to above freezing for the afternoon (also no surprise given that the gfs doesn’t do well in cold air damming (CAD) situations).  Hopefully the euro is more right, but I’ll update again on Friday.