A system will eventually organize in the southwest later this week, and though most models have it exiting the southeast coast harmlessly out to sea over the weekend, there is still optimism for things to change for the better for the mid-Atlantic.  Both the afternoon Euro and evening GFS models improved a tad north from their previous runs, but still no snowfall is modeled to make it into the area.  However, if you’ve been a reader of the WM over the years, you know that many east coast winter storms can actually end up further north than modeled in the medium range, and I think that’s particularly true in Nino years.  Just know that it wouldn’t take much to change for this to become a decent storm for the area late in the weekend, so stay tuned.

Also, for those that enjoy perusing the model runs, I should note the GFS is scheduled to be replaced in late January by the FV3-GFS.  Until then, I may refer to both models in my updates.  Just for comparison, this evening’s FV3 is the most north of the three models and has some light snow overspreading central MD during the day Sunday, but though more than both the Euro and GFS, it’s still nothing of significance.

Things will certainly change throughout the week, so I’ll update periodically.

Considering how cold it has been recently, not to mention a sizeable winter event already under our belts, it’s hard to believe that the official start to meteorological winter is still a couple of days away.  But, as if on cue, the models are starting to hint at  a potential storm around the 8th or 9th.  Certainly it’s too early to suggest that it might be a snow storm, but some indices are aligning nicely that in the past have resulted in snow, so it shouldn’t be dismissed.  We can talk more about it next week as things unfold.

In the meantime, I still haven’t put together the spreadsheet for the Snow Contest, so if you still want to enter or edit your original guess, there’s time.  Click the Snow Contest tab above for details.

Also, I have heard from some that finding the “Follow” link is a little tricky.  If you want to follow this blog, scroll to the top of this page and the link will appear at the bottom right.

At 5AM, precipitation is rapidly streaming northeastward from southern VA and should overspread central MD between 6 and 7AM.  Current temperatures are in the mid 30’s but dew point temps are in the low 20’s, so once the precipitation starts, cold air aloft will be drawn down and surface temperatures will drop to at or slightly below freezing for areas west of I95.  As far as precipitation type, there may be a brief period of rain that will quickly transition to sleet and snow for the remainder of the morning hours for just about all of central MD.  The sleet and snow could be moderate to heavy and accumulations of a coating to a couple of inches are possible, though mainly in grassy areas.  Because temperatures have not been below freezing leading up to this event, roads should be just wet initially, but if the short range models are right regarding intensity, and I think they are, then a slushy film is possible during the heaviest sleet and snow along the 95 corridor with the usually favored northern and western areas having the highest likelihood of impacts.

There will be improving conditions from south to north as we go into the afternoon hours, but cold air trapped at the surface is difficult to scour out, so those improvements will be slow.  In the northern tier and western counties, icy conditions could last until the evening.

Not a bad start to winter considering that we are still a week away from Thanksgiving!

Northerly winds, rising barometer, falling dew points, and short range models coming in colder and snowier…

If this was a month from now, I’d be tempted to board the train for a surprise snow thump tomorrow morning, but it’s a week before Thanksgiving.  It’s too early.  The trees haven’t dropped all their leaves yet.  Halloween decorations are still on my front porch.  The Redskins are still leading the NFC East and haven’t choked their way to an 8 and 8 season.  I haven’t put my winter walrus weight on yet.  This can’t happen, right?  The hrrr model is terrible.  It’s never right.  But when it shows four hours of moderate to heavy snow over central MD for tomorrow morning, it’s really hard to not get sucked in by those pretty dark blue bands sitting right over the area.  Especially when the NAM comes in colder too.  But it’s not dependable either, right?

I’m tempted, but I know better.  I still think sleet, and I still think the worst is after 8AM and over before 2PM.  But I’ll get up early tomorrow morning just to be sure.

 

There’s nothing like starting off the winter season with a storm that has 4 different models showing 4 different solutions, but that’s really just par for the course in this area.

The easier forecasts for tomorrow are west of the I-270 and Route 15 corridor and along the northern tier of MD and PA where a prolonged period of mixed snow, sleet, and freezing rain could make travel difficult well into the afternoon.  Also pretty easy is the areas east of I-95 into Anne Arundel, most of PG, Calvert, and the eastern shore where temperatures are expected to be above freezing so even if the precip starts as something frozen, the transition to rain should be quick.  The problem forecast is for central MD between Baltimore and Washington especially as you go west from 95 including Montgomery, Howard, northern Baltimore, Harford, and any counties west.  Depending on your model of choice, we could start as rain, freezing rain, sleet, or even a little thump of snow, all of which is complicated by an expected start time of between 6 and 8 AM.

Right now for central MD, I think we will see a period of frozen precip during the morning and be in the form of sleet with maybe an initial burst of snow.  Start time around 6AM near DC and working north to about 8AM near the PA line.  Temperatures should rise to above freezing by late morning and the sleet will change to rain.  If poor conditions do develop tomorrow, the greatest threat is during the mid and late morning as the precip gets steadier and cold air remains entrenched at the surface.  By afternoon, most areas along the 95 corridor should get above freezing, but western and northern areas will hold on to cold temperatures longer.

As far as school schedules, it may come down to the onset time and whether schools can start before things get messy, and then head home in the afternoon when things have improved.  Unfortunately, in situations like this storm where warm air moves over cold air, precip can start earlier than medium range models suggest, so short range models need to be checked right up to the onset.

As I finish writing this, the NWS has issued Winter Weather Advisories for all central and northern MD counties from the bay to the Blue Ridge for 7AM to 4PM tomorrow, and a Winter Storm Warning for areas west of the Blue Ridge.  I’ll update later tonight or first thing tomorrow regarding what the short range models suggest regarding start time and type of precipitation.

 

The good news is that the WM continues to grow, but with that growth we’ve gotten too big for any email service, so we’ve had to move our headquarters here.  And, yes, I considered joining the Instagram or Facebook world, but then my students told me that, “Facebook is for old people,” so this blog will just have to work for us.  The site is public, so feel free to share the url address with others.

There’s a lot to talk about so let’s get to it.  First, if you want to receive these updates in a timely manner, bookmark this site, then subscribe to this blog by clicking the follow button on the very bottom right of this page and enter your email address to know that there has been an update.  Until we get the kinks worked out, you may want to check back frequently to see if there has been an update, especially when wintry weather is possible.

I know that many have been wondering, but the Snow Contest is on!  Most of you know how it works, but if not, the contest is simple.  Send me your guess to the new WeatherMill email account, theweathermill@gmail.com, of the day and hour that you think the first official inch of snow will be recorded at BWI airport.  Enter “Snow Contest” in the subject line and use the format below:

November 15th, 9AM

I will take entries through Thanksgiving weekend, and if for some crazy reason we end up getting an inch of snow on Thursday this week, the contest will be for the second storm of the season, but I don’t think BWI scores enough this week to put an asterisk on this year’s contest.

Okay, so what about Thursday?!?  The trends the past 48 hours have been favorable for most of us to see our first snow of the season, but I have not had a lot of time to delve into the specifics because putting this page together is taking me way too long.  I will look over the latest model runs and then update with my second ever blog post later tonight or first thing Wednesday morning.

Finally, as far as how this winter is shaping up, overall temperatures look to be normal to slightly above average, but an El Nino Pacific and Atlantic blocking may lead to some stellar snow events.  So strap in because it looks like it could be a lot of fun!