Mostly Wet but a Pasting for Western Areas

Friday, Jan 5, 3PM

I’m hoping that the models are wrong and things will be colder than expected, but for areas along and east of 95, this should be a little wintry mix followed by a bunch of rain. Of course, the usual rule of heading further north and west, the better the chances for snow. Regardless, precipitation arrives around noon tomorrow probably in the form of snow for most, then transitions quickly to rain for eastern areas. For the 95 corridor, there may be a quick coating on grassy surfaces but the snow should change to rain in the early afternoon. The rain/snow line should continue working north and west through the afternoon as warmer air moves in from the east, but areas along the PA line and west of Frederick may stay all snow throughout the day. Winter Storm Warnings are posted for those areas for up to 5″ of snow and maybe ice, and the lesser Winter Weather Advisories are posted for the peripheral areas to the east, including Howard.

Not to get anyone’s hopes up, but if the precipitation comes in heavy enough, there might be a few surprises even along 95. Heavier precipitation can mix the atmosphere and drag enough cold air down to overcome some warming. I’m not expecting that but it is a possibility. If that were to happen, we might be able to get a little snow thump before the transition to rain in the metro corridor.

I’ll send an update early Saturday morning for those that might have travel plans.

Happy New Year and Maybe Better Winter Times Ahead

As we begin the new year, it looks like our chances for winter weather may finally be increasing with our first chance coming next weekend. All models are indicating that a storm will impact the area next weekend, but the track, strength, and type of precipitation are unknown. The good news is that models have been very consistent that a storm will develop and impact the area next Saturday night and Sunday, and those same models have been fairly consistent that at least some snow will fall across much of the region. The bad news is that we are still 6 days away so things will definitely change. I am reluctant to say it, but some of the output is very encouraging, so if models remain consistent and we get within a reasonable time frame, I’ll begin sending more specific updates.

Regarding the winter in general, I am disappointed that we didn’t get any real winter weather in December, but given the Pacific is an El Nino, things have been progressing as expected. For me, it’s difficult to remain patient because it feels like forever since we’ve had any snow (BWI has recently surpassed 700 days without an inch of snow), but El Nino’s generally deliver in the second half of winter, so a December shutout is not uncommon. Looking at the long range models, they still indicate that late January and February hold some promise, though no one should blame us if we take a “I’ll believe it when I see it” attitude. Hopefully we get on the board this weekend and can put our dismal losing streak to rest!

Regardless, Happy New Year, and I look forward to more posting opportunities in the near future!

Rain to Snow Overnight

Not a major event but it’s good to get a little model watching practice in as we begin the winter season.

A cold front is crossing the region this evening and rain will change to snow from west to east after midnight in western areas, and around 3 AM for the 95 corridor. For most of us, any snow should be conversational and not cause any problems as surface temperatures will remain well above freezing. However, for areas west of MD 97 and also along the northern tier, some accumulations are possible, especially on grassy surfaces. Some models are showing high enough rates of snowfall for possible slushy and slippery conditions, especially in those western and northern areas. Any precipitation should end by 7AM.

Beyond this, there are presently no signs of a region wide storm leading up to the holidays, but that’s still long range and things can change.

Monday Morning

It’s only a possibility but tomorrow morning could be interesting for parts of the area as rain may change over and end as a period of snow later tonight. I’ll spend time looking at it today and send out a more informative update this evening.

Here’s the Snow Contest!

There isn’t any snow on the immediate horizon, but the rainstorm expected this Sunday reminds me of a rain event that we had around the same time in December 2009. I doubt I have to remind anyone of what happened about ten days later that month. Interestingly, there does look to be some better potential in the in the long range leading up to break, though I am going to try to wait to see if it’s a genuine trend or just another head fake like we’ve seen the last several years. I say try because already this year feels different than any of our recent winters, and different would be very good.

In the meantime, feel free to peruse or save the Snow Contest below. Good luck!

snow-contest-23-24-3 Download

Maybe the First Flakes Tomorrow?

A strong cold front is bringing the coldest air of the early season and even may bring a few snow showers or flurries during the day Tuesday, so keep your eyes peeled. Also, I wanted to give everyone a last opportunity to enter or even change an entry in the Snow Contest. Some of you with very early entries may want to make a new guess. I’ll send out the completed spreadsheet later this week.

It Has to Snow Again, Right?

The last time that BWI airport recorded over an inch of snow in a single storm was almost two years ago in January, 2022. But if you’ve been paying attention to the recent winter predictions for the area, you have to think that things will improve. Personally, I will be skeptical right up until I’m shoveling my driveway, but after reading some of the more respected forecast predictions, it’s tough to not feel a twinge of optimism. For starters, the Pacific Ocean has finally transitioned from a three-year, stubborn and cruddy La Nina, to an El Nino. And though an El Nino does not mean that we are guaranteed snow, some of our better winters have been when the Pacific is in this state. Moreover, many meteorologists are comparing this El Nino to some of our better winter patterns like, yes, I daresay, 2009 – 2010. That winter was obviously special and we shouldn’t expect anything like that, but if we do get a big snow events they generally occur more frequently in El Nino years. That winter was was made even more special because of the December blizzard the week before winter break. Our big blizzards usually happen in late January and February, but December, 2009, was the exception to that soft rule. The point is that in spite of my bitterness regarding the past several winters, there is reason to be hopeful. And with the holiday season within site, a time of the year when we are filled with delusional hope for stress-free family gatherings and piles of snow for the holidays, what better time to bring back the 17th Annual Weather Mill Snow Contest? There was no winner last year, so the co-defending champs are still Andrea Katkow and Alessandra Ciccone. Entering is easy. Simply follow the link and pick the day and time that you think the first one inch snow of the year will occur at BWI airport. I will take submissions through Thanksgiving weekend, Sunday, November 26. For the sake of transparency, my pick is December 8, 6AM, but as always, don’t read anything into it as I have clearly demonstrated that I have no idea what I’m doing.

Good luck to all!

Snow Contest Entry 2023-2024

Here is the complete list of past winners:

2022 – 2023 No winner

2021 – 2022 Andrea Katkow and Alessandra Ciccone

2020 – 2021 Kristin Taylor

2019 – 2020 Matt Berkowitz, Tiffany Carmean, and Stacy Cashmark

2018 – 2019 Stacy Cashmark

2017 – 2018 Rigged event

2016 – 2017 Sue Carlson

2015 – 2016 Carol A. Collins

2014 – 2015 Zenon Fernandes and Martin Vandenberge

2013 – 2014 Margaret Hunt

2012 – 2013 Katie Lovell

2011 – 2012 Frank Eastham

2010 – 2011 Pat Pecor

2009 – 2010 Barb Gilmartin and Carrie Quintavalla

2008 – 2009 Carol A. Collins

2007 – 2008 Carla Stocksdale

A Rare Event

If you’re out today and notice some white stuff falling from the sky, you needn’t worry about any dangerous fallout. It’s just a type of precipitation that is commonly known in some colder climates as, “snow.” Interestingly, I have been told by some in the older generations that there was a time that it was fairly common in these parts during the winter season, but I find that difficult to believe. Can you imagine February without blooming daffodils and pink-hued cherry trees? We should all feel very fortunate to be living in such a more temperate and hospitable environment. So, if you’re out and about and get to experience this rare occurrence, be assured that it won’t last long and will not be problematic for the road surfaces.

Be Careful in The AM

4AM February 1

Snow is falling early this morning across the area with temperatures at or just above freezing. The snow will be ending before sunrise and be aware that temperatures may drop a couple of degrees as drier air moves in from the northwest. Roads in many areas were not able to be pretreated last evening as they were still wet, so untreated surfaces could quickly become slick.

It isn’t a lot, but at least we finally got on the board.

Desperate Times for Snow Lovers

9PM Tuesday

As mentioned earlier, the midday models came north with a narrow band of precipitation for the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning. This evening, all models continued the trend, which is great, but the problem is that it’s not a very big system to begin with.

So, although I think most of us will see some snow tonight, the most likely areas to see any accumulation, and it would not be much, are south of I 70. Further, I strongly doubt that this has the potential to bring the first inch to BWI, but the most recent runs of both the gfs and the euro suggest it is possible. Both place a narrow 1-2” band across central MD, and with only two people left in the Snow Contest, I expect Nicole Pickett to be up all night looking for the victory, and Penny Wolkow hoping for another week in our seasonal shutout.

I wanted to wait until some of the later runs to complete before posting, but I’ll post this now and another update in a couple of hours after the gfs. It’s been so long since I’ve seen snow in my backyard, I’ll be up anyway.