Snow is likely but a tricky snow accumulation forecast overnight Thursday into early Friday as a low pressure system approaches from our southwest later this evening. Winter Weather Advisories have been posted across the entire region for a general 2 – 4” of snow. Start time looks to be from about 9PM this evening and ending around 5AM Friday morning.

Looking at the expected precipitation totals from all the models, those accumulation totals look good. However, the models are also indicating that bands of precipitation will form and be oriented from southwest to northeast through central MD. In those bands there could be heavy snow so there is the potential of up to 6” in those areas, while those that are between the bands might only see 2 – 3”. It’s too early to know where the heaviest axes of snow will form, so hopefully some of the mesoscale models will have a better handle on it later today.

Regardless, snow is a good bet tonight across the region, and although the storm will be a quick-mover, cold temperatures and heavy snow rates would cause roads to deteriorate quickly. As a result, there would probably be schedule changes in the morning. All contingent, of course, on the forecast being correct.

I’ll update after the mid day model runs early this afternoon with more details.

The next snow maker is still on track for Thursday night, though all models say this will be a modest 1 – 3″ for most of central MD. The models have juiced up a little over the past 12 to 18 hours, so maybe we can eek out the high end of that, but at this time we shouldn’t expect anything more than that.

I’ll update again tomorrow with more details, or sooner if I see any drastic changes.

In today’s political climate, it’s only fitting that yesterday’s snowfall had us all either saying, “What a storm!” or, “What storm?” The range of snowfall across the area was dramatically different from northwest to southeast, with Westminster hardly seeing a flake to Annapolis and further south seeing a foot or more. I had hoped that the northwest trends that the models had picked up on Friday and Saturday would continue right up until the snow started falling so that all of us could have enjoyed it, but they settled on just south of the route 50 corridor as the jackpot zone. Hopefully, the next system is more charitable and includes all of us.

Regarding the Snow Contest, BWI recorded nearly 7″ of snow, and at 7AM yesterday reported their first inch of snow for the season. There were several in the contest that chose January 3rd, however, Andrea Katkow said 6AM, and Alessandra Ciccone said 8AM, meaning that we have co-winners this year. Congratulations, and I will reach out to you both so you can choose your major award!

Before looking ahead to our next potential snow-maker, I want to quickly address the slight possibility of some frozen drizzle early tomorrow morning. It is only a small chance but freezing drizzle can be a nightmare on untreated surfaces, so I wanted to make people aware of the potential. Even if air temperatures are above freezing, surface temperatures could still be cold enough to freeze, so just be careful tomorrow morning especially if any precipitation is falling.

The next possible snow event is Thursday night into Friday morning as another quick moving system from the southwest makes its way to the coast early Friday morning. I don’t think this one will have the energy to develop into a major winter storm, but if today’s model runs are correct, the entire area has the potential to see a moderate 2 – 6″ event. And unlike yesterday’s snow, temperatures do not look to be an issue. This would start as snow and stay snow for the duration. Presently, the timing looks to be from about midnight Thursday to mid-morning Friday, which would certainly bring schedule changes on Friday. It’s still early so much can (and will) change, so I’ll update either later this evening or first thing tomorrow morning.

For those that are fortunate enough to have snow on the ground today, enjoy!

Hard to believe that it’s 60 degrees outside and we are 12-15 hours from a snow event, but most models continue to trend in our direction including the GFS and the Euro. Both are presently jack-potting the area between Annapolis and DC, but this is a fluid forecast as things continue to change quickly. The NWS is playing it safe, as they should, and upping totals gradually as new data comes in, but I think they are still a bit behind. If trends continue with the evening models, I expect most of the area to be under Winter Storm Warnings later tonight. If you are following the snow maps that models are spitting early this afternoon, you know that some of the totals being depicted are in the 6 – 18″ range, but be weary of those those. They are almost always overdone, and with warm ground temperatures, we would lose some accumulation to cooling the surface. However, there is plenty of cold air just to our northwest that will continue filtering in the rest of the afternoon, and once precipitation begins, temperatures should crash quickly. If pressed for amounts, I’d divide those totals in half, but that’s just a guess.

For now, I want to watch some football and enjoy the (hopefully) second-to-last-day of break, so I’ll update later this afternoon or evening as the storm comes together to our southwest.

It’s been tough few years for those of us that enjoy winter weather, and although this year has not delivered, we may finally have a window of opportunity. A pattern change is in the works, but with the state of the Pacific not cooperating at all, it’s hard to say how long it will last. Regardless, the next few weeks could bring the best opportunity of lasting winter weather that we’ve seen in at least a couple of years. The first opportunity is late Sunday night into Monday morning as a storm system that is still modeled just to the south of the area, continues to trend north. Central MD is still not modeled to get much if any snow from this system, but the recent trends are encouraging. Admittedly, it’s hard to get excited about snow prospects, especially considering that it hasn’t been below freezing in the past week, but most models are trending in the right direction, so I remain hopeful. There’s more winter weather possible later in the week, so I’ll do a more detailed discussion tomorrow of both systems. In the meantime, here is this year’s Snow Contest which I think may be in jeopardy before week’s end. Happy New Year!

Judging by the amount of salt on the roads, one might think we are in for a decent snowfall. Unfortunately, I don’t think that’s the case. Although it is snowing aloft early this morning, dry air at the surface is preventing any precipitation from reaching the ground. Once the column is saturated (or if the column gets saturated) there may be a couple of hours of snow this morning that may leave a coating on grassy surfaces in some areas. I think most of us will have to settle for December mood flakes, and I think that the Snow Contest is safe.

Looking ahead, the next ten to fourteen days do not show a lot of promise, but the models are starting to advertise a decent pattern evolution around Christmas. No promises because a La Nina is notorious for showing fantasy in the long range forecast, but maybe this is the year for a white Christmas.

Also, the Snow Contest is open for guesses through the weekend.

Thanksgiving is wrapped up so it must be time for another season of the Weather Mill, and as always we will start the holiday season with the 15th Annual Weather Mill Snow Contest. Simply follow the link and pick the day and time that you think the first one inch snow of the year will occur at BWI airport. I will take submissions through next weekend, Sunday, December 12th.

Enter Snow Contest Here

Last year’s winner, Kristin Taylor, will be receiving her major award soon, and we will be sure to document the exciting ceremony. Below is the complete list of previous winners. If there is an asterisk next to your name, please drop me an email so I can contact you.

2020 – 2021 Kristin Taylor

2019 – 2020 Matt Berkowitz*, Tiffany Carmean, and Stacy Cashmark

2018 – 2019 Stacy Cashmark

2017 – 2018 Rigged event

2016 – 2017 Sue Carlson*

2015 – 2016  Carol A. Collins*

2014 – 2015  Zenon Fernandes and Martin Vandenberge

2013 – 2014  Margaret Hunt *

2012 – 2013  Katie Lovell

2011 – 2012  Frank Eastham

2010 – 2011  Pat Pecor *

2009 – 2010  Barb Gilmartin* and Carrie Quintavalla

2008 – 2009  Carol A. Collins*

2007 – 2008  Carla Stocksdale

As far as our snow opportunities, there is a slight chance of something developing next Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, but it doesn’t look very promising. After that, we likely enter a mild stretch of spring-like conditions, so there probably won’t be much to talk about for the next couple of weeks. Maybe we will have something in the second half of the month to help make the season more festive, however the long-term guidance does not look good. In fact, the entire winter looks pretty bleak, but we all know not to put too much stock in long-term seasonal forecasts, so I will remain optimistic.

Not a lot of time this morning, but the short-term models have been performing well locally on this system and things are playing out as expected. After this morning’s storms and lingering showers, we will get a break, and possibly even some sunshine. Any day time heating will only add fuel to the atmosphere, and things will deteriorate quickly this afternoon. Models show that between 2 and 5PM, severe storms will move through the area from west to east. Not to sound dramatic, but as these storms cross the area, there is likely going to be some major disruptions. Heavy rain, flash flooding, strong winds, and several tornadoes are possible during this time, so plan accordingly. A second line of storms may cross the area a few hours later, and then things should begin clearing out. The long weekend is looking perfect for later summer and early fall.

Tuesday, 2PM

Tomorrow could be a very busy day for the National Weather Service across the Mid-Atlantic, especially in the late afternoon and evening. The remnants of Ida will converge with a stalled front potentially bringing heavy rain across the area, and the possibility of severe storms with tornadoes during the afternoon.

The models have shifted the center of what remains of Ida more north, which makes for good and bad news. For those looking to avoid the long duration heavy rain and extreme flash flooding, the good news is that the heaviest axis of rain tomorrow should be near and north of the MD/PA border. However, the more north track means that Ida’s center will pass to our west and north, putting us squarely in the southeastern quadrant of the storm. The bad news is that this quadrant is where the most severe storms develop. So, even though Ida has been downgraded to a tropical depression, there could be super-cell storms containing potentially large tornadoes crossing the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. It is not a definite, but it’s worth noting that although any tornado in a densely populated areas is dangerous, some of the tornadoes tomorrow could be larger than the small spin-up type that we get more frequently. My point is that if any tornado watches or warnings are issued tomorrow, take them seriously.

For now, models suggest a round of rain will develop before sunrise tomorrow and end across most of the area during the morning. Then there may be some clearing around midday which will only serve to prime the atmosphere for any severe storms later in the day. Also, it should be mentioned that although we will probably not be getting the 4 to 6″ of rain that was being advertised yesterday, any thunderstorm could produce extremely heavy downpours that can quickly bring localized, short term flash-flooding. Much of the area is well above normal with regards to rainfall so local flooding is still possible.

I’ll try to update Wednesday morning.

Unfortunately, with the sun rising over the Louisiana area, the next few hours will bring some grim photos and tragic news. The entire city of New Orleans has been out of power (and probably will be for some time) since late last night, and heavy rain bands set up over the area causing severe flooding and stressing levees in the area. Hopefully the reports I read late last night are exaggerated.

We obviously will not experience anything like the Gulf coast, but the remnants of Ida are expected to get caught up in a stalled front Wednesday over our area. As a result, heavy rain is expected late Wednesday and during the overnight hours into early Thursday. Right now, anywhere from 2-4″ of rain is expected with isolated areas of around 6 inches. That will certainly cause flash flooding concerns during those times. As far as winds are concerned, right now gusts of up to 30 mph are expected, especially in the higher terrain, but that needs to be monitored and the NWS will update as we get closer. Either way, much of our area has received above average rain over the past month, so the combination of more rain and gusty winds could result in some downed trees.

I’ll update what the model runs show periodically.