We’ve got three “storms” to deal with over the next four days beginning this evening with a wave of low pressure sliding along a frontal boundary separating arctic air to the north and warmer air to the south. To keep from getting ahead of ourselves, we should focus on tonight’s impacts as each wave will have an influence over the subsequent system.
For tonight, snow should develop across central MD sometime this evening between 7 and 9PM and continue into Thursday morning. Snowfall rates won’t be heavy, but a general 2 – 4″ snow seems likely based on precipitation totals and temperatures. All areas north of the ICC should be below freezing, and since the bulk of snow will be falling during the night, untreated surfaces will be slick. South and east of there, marginal temperatures may reduce accumulations. Regardless, snow should taper during the morning on Thursday.
There will be a lull for the remainder of the day tomorrow as we wait to see how the second wave develops. Some models have that too far to the south to impact central MD while others suggest it will be weak and have little impact. I’m leaning on tonight and early Thursday as the bigger of the two events, but I’ll update as things develop.
Beyond Friday, there is a more significant system that looks to impact the area Saturday and Saturday night. Presently, that looks like a mixed event with a good deal of freezing rain possible. We can go into more details with that once we see how Friday might play out.
I’ll update later today if things look different for tonight than what I’ve described, otherwise tomorrow morning with more details for Friday and Saturday’s possibilities.
The end of the week threat is becoming more likely as a boundary of arctic air to the north and relatively warmer air to the south sets up across our area for this event. Snow is likely beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday with a lull possible during Thursday afternoon and then snow redeveloping late Thursday in to Friday ending around noon. The exact timing and amounts are still uncertain but it looks as though this could be the biggest regional snow of the season so far with amounts of 4 – 8″ possible. Also, temperatures will be below freezing for the duration so there’s no doubt that what falls will accumulate, and travel will be discouraged.
I’ll update later today. Also, Sunday has the potential to be an ice event (yuck), and more snow possibilities could be on tap for next work week.
I have never seen it snow like it did yesterday for as long as it did and end up with such a pitiful amount. Mind you, I’m not complaining, it was a very pretty snowfall, but it would be nice to eventually get a snowstorm that actually delivers what the models are trying to sell. Our next candidate is this Wednesday night and Thursday as moisture from a wave crosses the area, and then another wave Thursday night and Friday. Looking at model runs yesterday, both of these systems looked like a snow to sleet or freezing rain event, but trends have been to a colder solution so it’s possible that these could both bring snow. Total precipitation from both waves looks like somewhere around .75″, so if they did stay all snow, we’d be looking at a possible 3 – 5″ snow Wednesday night into Thursday, then a lull, and then another 2 – 3″ into Friday. This is all preliminary and will probably change, but know that the potential is there for a dicey end of the work week.
Over the weekend there is the potential of another, more substantial winter event on Sunday, and beyond that, the pattern looks to reload and continue the threats. BWI is currently sitting at a meager 6.2″ for the season while Philly is over three times that and NYC is over 5 times that. Hopefully the next couple of weeks deliver so that central MD can get into some of the action that others just to our north have enjoyed.
I’ll update tomorrow on the end of the week possibilities.
A relatively uncomplicated system will cross the area Sunday morning bringing predominantly snow, which may be heavy at times, beginning before sunrise which should result in a nice little morning snowstorm for Super Bowl Sunday. The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warnings for all of central MD, and their current snow maps suggest a 4 to 6″ event across the region, however there is some uncertainty because of the possibility of banding of precipitation. The higher resolution models are clearly showing that heavier, narrow bands of snow will develop and move through the the area from southwest to northeast tomorrow morning. If you’re lucky enough to be under one of those heavy bands, then 5+” of snow is reasonable, but those locations between the bands may end up with less. Regardless, I think anywhere from 3 to 6″ is a good call (I’m sure the NWS is relieved to read that I agree with them). Morning travel should be avoided as times of intense snowfall rates will be possible, but this will be a quick mover and should be out of the area by around noon. Temperatures will be above freezing so travel in the afternoon should be fine.
Beyond tomorrow, the chances of winter weather are still looking good as we turn our attention to a possible storm later in the work week followed by what may be the coldest air of the season for Valentine’s weekend. It looks like fun times for awhile so get out and enjoy it.
I just wanted to post quickly that snow is looking likely for central MD late Saturday night and Sunday. Right now a general 2 – 4″ is in play but I’ll update later today with more details.
Just an incredible long duration storm, and the persistent banding over the area will eventually diminish later this morning, though some of us could see another 1 – 2″. As far as totals are concerned, it looks like we will end up in the 5 – 8″ range, though along the MD/PA border it’s a bit more and varied depending on what areas got that ridiculous band yesterday (Sabillasville, MD, in Frederick county had reports of 20″ as of last night. Here are the most recent local reports from the NWS).
For the rest of the work week (and on that note, if I ran the world, today would be a snow day across the area) things will quiet down, but there’s more winter on the horizon. There is a possible storm on Sunday and behind that storm is finally some true Arctic air. Phil somehow saw his shadow this morning and it looks like he may have made the right call because February has a chance to deliver.
More on the possible Super Bowl Sunday event as we get closer.
Most of us are going to see snow this afternoon and into the overnight as the storm stalls just to the east off the Atlantic seaboard. It’s pretty easy to see the CCB forming on the backside of the system moving south into MD. Snow is redeveloping across the area from north to south and it’s still anyone’s guess as to how far south the snow precip shield will get. Areas that should see the heaviest snow are north of MD I-70 where it can pile up quickly as ratios will be much higher than the normal 10:1. As a result of the redevelopment of precipitation, the NWS has extended all advisories and warnings in central MD until 9AM tomorrow for up to 2″ of new snow roughly south of I – 70 and 2 – 4″ north to the PA line.
Hopefully we all get into the action this evening. Enjoy!
So far this “storm” has been very tame, but things are slowly developing and by evening, some of us may (fingers crossed) have a different perspective. Temperatures this morning remain below freezing and most areas are getting freezing drizzle, but for central MD I think there may be more snow to come, especially for areas north of I-70.
Presently, a storm continues to develop off the southeastern coast and will move to a position off the mid-Atlantic around midday and intensify, and then stall. As the storm nears our area, winds will pick up out of the northeast and become gusty. Those same winds will cool the atmosphere so that the predominant precipitation type would be snow. Moisture off the Atlantic Ocean will funnel down from the northeast and north-south oriented bands of snow will develop. The placement of the low pressure off the coast, and specifically where it stalls will be crucial in determining if we just see some light conversational snow, of if the CCB bandd can really deliver something special. Personally, I have a good feeling about this afternoon and overnight for the northern tier of MD, and even down into Howard and northern Anne Arundel counties, but I’ll look at things around noon and see how they are developing. IF this materializes, just know that localized areas of snow would be possible from early afternoon into the overnight hours, and with temperatures remaining below freezing, driving would be tricky.
Today didn’t overwhelm, but some areas did well enough with the first part of the system to reach low end warning criteria, and now we look ahead to tomorrow. Presently a storm is forming along the coast of the NC and SC border and is expected to move to a position off the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow where it is expected to intensify and stall. Wrap-around moisture will develop to the northeast and pinwheel southwest. I think areas north of I-70 have the best chance of seeing accumulating snow tomorrow but that could change.
I’ll update early in the AM as the radar begins presenting itself.
This is where we are right now. Snow still arrives tomorrow morning and probably earlier than the noon I initially thought. Most models bring accumulating snow in from southwest to northeast from about sunrise to 10AM. Snow will continue through the afternoon in varying intensities from light to moderate with accumulations from 3 – 6″. The areas with the best chance of seeing periods of heavier snow will probably be south of I-70 because the warm air aloft will slowly run out of steam as it continues pushing in from the southwest. Regardless, I think the NWS will issue Winter Storm Warnings for most areas along the 95 corridor for tomorrow’s snow. The snow will lighten, and change to freezing drizzle from south to north between 6 and 10PM tomorrow evening. That happens because without steady precipitation mixing and cooling the column above, the warm air noses in and creates a layer of air slightly above freezing. Think of it as the icing layer between to cakes. It’s cold enough above for snow, and cold enough below, but the falling rate of precipitation isn’t strong enough to mix and overcome the icing layer (see what I did there?). Snow falls from above, hits the warm air and melts, and then falls into the bottom cold layer and freezes. Anyway, to be clear, the current Winter Storm Watches only covers the period from 6AM Sunday to 6AM Monday. That’s important because it does not take into account what may fall on Monday. And that’s still the tricky part.
So why is that part of the system so complicated and difficult to pin down? The obvious and easy reason is that it’s difficult to know where the new storm forms. But it’s even more complicated than that. The new, developing storm is going to be very dynamic and there will be huge disparities in snowfall over short distances. These types of redeveloping systems are usually too far north for our area, and are more common from the Philly area and northeast from there. However, in this situation, the models have been showing a strong block to the northeast so that in this case there’s the chance the storm forms at a low enough latitude that we get some snow on the “backside” of the system. However, recent model trends have not been good for getting the best of Monday’s snow. I still think that we see more snow developing Monday morning around sunrise, but I don’t feel good about it being heavy, especially in the areas south of I 70 and west of about 97. The areas that have the best chance of seeing the heavier band (called the CCB – cold conveyor belt) is to the northeast of Baltimore along 95 to Philadelphia. But it’s still not a done deal. As I’ve said in past posts, snowfall maps should not be used to forecast snow amounts, but they are an easy way to see what models “think” will happen. I think these maps show how difficult this system will be to predict until early Monday. All of these maps (from www.pivotalweather.com) include the snow tomorrow, and then the possible snow on Monday. All of these maps, and many, many more, are free and I highly recommend anyone with an interest in weather bookmarking the site above.
First, the GFS snow map from 6z this mornin. It suggests 2 – 4″ tomorrow and the rest from Monday. Notice the higher amounts in northern MD and southern PA where most is from Monday.
Here’s the Euro from 0z this morning. It suggests 2 – 4″ tomorrow and the rest on Monday. By the way, there is an off hour run at 6z that is only available on pay sites so I can’t post it here, but it’s a little better than this.
Then we have the short-range models. First the NAM. It shows a solid thump tomorrow of 4 – 6″ tomorrow and the “rest” on Monday.
And the crazy RGEM. Shows about 3 – 5″ tomorrow and then piles on Monday. Seriously, this is not correct, but damn, it’s fun to look at, and it also illustrates the potential with a developing coastal. We get crushed on Monday, Monday night, Tuesday…
So, which one is correct? I can just about guarantee that none of them are exactly right, but I think the short range models like the NAM have the best handle on tomorrow. Beyond that, there’s too much uncertainty, but I like my guess of 2 – 4″ more for Monday with a storm total of 6 – 10″ across central MD.
The Weather Mill 