Monday, January 13th, 2PM

As I mentioned a few days ago, we have official winners in the snow contest!  The first inch of snow fell between 3 and 4PM last Tuesday, and since we had two people pick 7AM on Tuesday, and one person pick 12AM on Wednesday, we have three winners that were all about 8.5 hours off.  So congratulations to Matt Berkowitz, Stacy Cashmark (also last year’s winner), and Tiffany Carmean.  I’ll be in touch with each of you so when we get hit by the big blizzard in February, I can come by and clear your driveway.

As for the weekend, both the gfs and euro show a significant winter storm across the mid-Atlantic beginning right around sunrise Saturday morning.  Right now it looks like a classic snow to sleet, freezing rain deal, ending in drizzle, but obviously we have a long way to go before we can make any accurate guess.  Just know that travel on Saturday could be dicey.

I’ll update throughout the week, and once again, congratulations to the Snow Contest winners!

Wednesday, January 8th, 9AM

First, we have a winner in the Snow Contest!  BWI officially recorded 1.5″ of snow during the evening yesterday, so I’ll contact and announce the winner later today.

For the rest of the day, a cold front will cross the region today bring very windy conditions and snow showers, especially this morning.  Near whiteout conditions have been reported in the squalls along the northern tier, and they are currently moving through parts of central MD now.  They should dissipate by early afternoon.

The overall pattern this winter has been pretty crummy for snow lovers, but we got lucky yesterday.  Unfortunately, our brush with winter this week will be brief as a strong storm will cut through the central US later this weekend putting us in a strong southerly flow.  Temperatures will climb considerably by Friday, and the weekend, including the Raven’s game, looks unseasonably mild with temperatures in the 60’s and the possibility of rain showers.

Beyond that, look for the possibility of pattern flip by the end of January that may bring better chances of winter weather into February.

Tuesday, January 7th, 5AM

A small, but energy-packed storm system will cross the region later today bringing a period of moderate to heavy snow during the afternoon and early evening.  Expect clouds to increase this morning and rain or a rain/snow mix to develop around 1PM across central MD.  There will likely be shallow layer of warm air right at the surface, and you may even say to yourself that it’s too warm to snow, but once the precipitation becomes steady, cold air just above the surface will mix down causing rain to change to snow.

Models are pretty consistent that the snow will be moderate to heavy at times between 2 and 6PM, so even if temperatures are slightly above freezing, the snow rates will probably overcome road temps and bring dangerous slushy and snow-covered conditions.  The gfs model has BWI airport around 33* during the heaviest precipitation, so areas to the west of that will be at least that cold, and maybe even at or below freezing.  Either way, driving this afternoon and evening will be a headache.  Once the sun sets, all areas from 95 and points west will likely fall below freezing until tomorrow morning.

The snow should end quickly this evening, exiting the area by about 8PM with total accumulations from a coating to an inch along the bay, 1 – 2″ along and just west of 95, and 2 – 3″ in the normally colder areas to further west and north of I 70.  Most counties west of the bay are under a Winter Weather Advisory beginning at noon with the exception of those bordering the Chesapeake Bay where there may be a longer period of mixed precip which will reduce impacts (AA, PG, Charles, Calvert, St. Mary’s counties).  But even in those areas, there will likely be a period of all snow this evening.

Be careful this afternoon, and if there are any changes, I’ll update around lunchtime.

Monday, January 6th, 10PM

The late model runs are just starting but they, and the earlier evening runs, are confirming that tomorrow could be a commuting nightmare for the evening, especially for 95 and areas west.  I’ll get up early and give a more detailed timeline, but my earlier guess looks pretty good for now.  The concern is that a lot of people don’t even know that snow is coming, and worse, all models are showing a solid 2 – 3 hour thump of moderate to heavy snow that will undoubtedly cause travel headaches.  I’ll update in the morning and try to give an accurate time of the snow’s arrival and the window of the heaviest rates.  Good times!

Monday, January 6th, 3PM

The midday models are consistent in that they bring a slug of moisture through central MD beginning early tomorrow afternoon and continuing into early evening.  Temperatures at the surface will initially be well above freezing, but all the models are suggesting that there could be a two or three hour period of moderate precipitation.  If that happens, colder air aloft would be dragged down to the surface and makes things pretty interesting as surface temperatures would fall quickly.  We are still nearly 24 hours away, but if I was to guess right now for central MD, I’d say there looks like a pretty good chance of a period of moderate snow that will make for slushy, and even snow-covered roadways between about 1 and 5PM tomorrow afternoon.  Snow should taper off in the evening with total accumulations around a coating along the bay, gradually increasing to an inch or two towards Columbia, and two to three inches well west and north.  Most of that should be in the grassy areas, and though it certainly isn’t a lot of snow, the possibility of the high rates in a short time could make for hazardous driving.  That’s an early guess, but I’ll update either later tonight or first thing tomorrow morning.

Monday, January 6th, 9AM

We finally have a little winter weather to talk about, so although it probably won’t amount to much, we can at least dust off the keyboard.   I’ll wait until after the midday model runs to get into any specifics, but expect snow, rain, or a mix along the 95 corridor tomorrow afternoon.  Right now, surface temperatures look like they will be slightly above freezing so any accumulations would be light and confined to grassy areas.   If the temperature profiles end up being what is modeled this morning, roads should be fine during the afternoon.  Depending on how much snow lingers after sunset as temperatures drop will determine what they will be like in the evening.  As of now, the greatest chance of any schedule changes looks to be confined to the evening.

I’ll send something out around 2:30 this afternoon.

Sunday, December 15th, 7PM

Snow will overspread central MD from west to east early tomorrow morning between 3 and 5AM and continue into the morning commute.  From about the ICC north, and west of I95, temperatures will likely be at or below freezing.  Areas east of 95 and south of the ICC will still see snow, but the transition to sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain will be quicker and likely happen by about 8AM.  For areas north and west, the transition will be slower and may not happen until after 10AM.  The precipitation will not be heavy, but will cause icy conditions on untreated surfaces.  There looks to be a lull around 9AM in the wintry precip, and the models suggest that when the precipitation picks up again in the early afternoon, most areas will be just rain except for the normally colder areas in northern Baltimore, Carroll, and Frederick counties, where freezing rain may continue into the evening.

Right now, the NWS has Winter Weather Advisories for areas of about Route 97, though they may expand them east through the 95 corridor at the onset of precip because of the possibility of freezing rain, and also the lower rush hour threshold (*) for WWA’s in those areas.  In any case, expect the possibility of icing tomorrow morning.

(*) Here’s the definition of a Winter Weather Advisory from the National Weather Service office covering our area (LWX), and note the bolded areas regarding freezing rain, and also the lower threshold during rush hour along the 95 corridor.

Winter Weather Advisory

A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for any amount of freezing rain, or when 2 to 4 inches of snow (alone or in combination with sleet and freezing rain), is expected to cause a significant inconvenience, but not serious enough to warrant a warning.

If the event is expected to impact the Baltimore/Washington metro areas during rush hours (4-9 am or 2-7 pm on weekdays) forecasted snow totals of one inch will necessitate the issuance of a winter weather advisory. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (3-5 inches).
 

Sunday, December 15th, Noon

The models are in agreement that tomorrow morning is likely going to be icy for areas north of the ICC in central MD, and particularly north of I 70.  The NWS will be issuing advisories early this afternoon for the counties bordering PA, and my guess that it will also include some of the areas along the 95 corridor.  The short term models have the precipitation breaking out well before sunrise as snow, and then slowly changing to sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain by late morning Monday.  I’ll send out a more detailed update later today, but just know that tomorrow morning’s commute could be dicey.

Thursday, December 12th, 4:30PM

A warm front will approach the area later tonight and Friday ahead of a storm that will bring rain tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Cold air is trapped at the surface, so if any precip gets here early enough tomorrow morning, there may be a brief period of freezing rain.  I don’t expect any precip to fall along the 95 corridor until later in the morning when temperatures will be above freezing, so I don’t think it’ll be a problem for central MD.  However, west of about I 270 where temperatures are expected to be below freezing well into the morning, there are Winter Weather Advisories for the possibility of icy road surfaces into the afternoon.  If things look to develop along the 95 corridor, I’ll update.

The next system to keep an eye on is Monday which right now shows signs of being a more widespread icing event.  More on that over that weekend.

Tuesday, December 10th, 10PM

No changes for the overnight.  Rain is changing to snow in northern Carroll and Frederick counties, eventually in all areas over night.  A coating to a couple of inches mainly on grassy surfaces expected with temperatures falling to near or below freezing for most areas along and west of 95 by early morning.  Some heavier banding may develop, and those areas could get a quick burst of snow that might even cover road surfaces.  I don’t think that there will be major problems in the morning, but enough in some areas for delayed openings.  Harford county has already delayed by two hours, and I’d expect others will too, especially along the northern tier of MD.

Looking ahead, there are already some indications of another system early next week, and looking really far ahead, Christmas looked like a Thomas Kinkade painting (man, I hope Tom Clifton still reads this blog.  He hates TK).  Though, be forewarned, the models haven’t been very accurate in the long term recently, so don’t get your hopes up.