Tuesday, January 31, 2PM

Midday model runs are nudging north with precipitation for tonight so there is still a chance of some accumulating snow, especially for areas south of I 70 early tomorrow morning. It wouldn’t be a lot, but anything at this point would be a win.

I’ll update later this evening.

A couple of the lesser models say that Wednesday morning needs to be watched for the low-chance of our first accumulating snow event of the season. I probably shouldn’t even mention it but as crummy as things have been, why not?

I’ll update after the noon models, but I don’t expect the news to be good.

I’m not sure what weather model MDoT has been looking at, but they sure used a lot of pickle juice for what looks like a whole lot of nothing.

The next week or so doesn’t look any better for snow chances, but it does look like winter temperatures will make a comeback during the first week of February. It’s going to take a lot to convince me that the cold will be accompanied by snow, but it can not possibly get any worse than January has been. Through yesterday, BWI is averaging a healthy 10.1 degrees above normal for the month and is on pace to a likely top 5 warmest January on record. You don’t need to know a lot about weather to know it’s hard to get snow in April.

Hopefully the models are on to something regarding colder temperatures as we enter February.

Friday, December 23, 6AM

Unfortunately, the dreaded flash freeze is looking very possible this morning. The NWS has issued several advisories including Wind Chill and High Wind for the immediate metro areas, and even Gale and Freezing Spray Warnings for the Bay. Just an absolute incredible weather day about to transpire.

Rain has redeveloped and will continue the next couple of hours ahead of the cold front. The leading edge of arctic air will arrive along the 95 corridor between 9 and 10AM causing any precip to change to freezing rain, sleet, or snow, and temperatures will quickly fall below freezing. It can not be stressed enough that all travel should be avoided. Roads could deteriorate very quickly and some areas may become a literal sheet of ice.

Behind the front is some of the coldest air we have seen since 2019, and it will stick around through early next week. Stay safe today and layer up!

Tomorrow late morning could be very ugly or a great big nothing-burger. However, regardless of what transpires, HoCo did the right thing. Below is the testament from the New York Sun editorial writer, Francis Pharcellus Church, who wrote this piece 125 years ago when questioned by a young girl as a result of the skepticism of her peers, but had the courage to seek her own path.

“Virginia, your little friends are wrong. They have been affected by the skepticism of a skeptical age. They do not believe except they see. They think that nothing can be which is not comprehensible by their little minds. All minds, Virginia, whether they be men’s or children’s, are little. In this great universe of ours man (and one day’s course in math or history or science or English) is a mere insect, an ant, in his intellect, as compared with the boundless world about him, as measured by the intelligence capable of grasping the whole truth and knowledge.

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. He exists as certainly as love and generosity and devotion exist, and you know that they abound and give to your life its highest beauty and joy. Alas! How dreary would be the world if there were no Santa Claus! It would be as dreary as if there were no Virginias. There would be no childlike faith then, no poetry, no romance to make tolerable this existence. We should have no enjoyment, except in sense and sight. The eternal light with which childhood fills the world would be extinguished.

Not believe in Santa Claus! You might as well not believe in fairies! You might get your papa to hire men to watch in all the chimneys on Christmas Eve to catch Santa Claus, but even if they did not see Santa Claus coming down, what would that prove? Nobody sees Santa Claus, but that is no sign that there is no Santa Claus. The most real things in the world are those that neither children nor men can see. Did you ever see fairies dancing on the lawn? Of course not, but that’s no proof that they are not there. Nobody can conceive or imagine all the wonders there are unseen and unseeable in the world.

You tear apart the baby’s rattle and see what makes the noise inside, but there is a veil covering the unseen world which not the strongest man, nor even the united strength of all the strongest men that ever lived, could tear apart. Only faith, fancy, poetry, love, romance can push aside that curtain and view and picture the supernal beauty and glory beyond. Is it all real? Ah, Virginia, in all this world there is nothing else real and abiding.

No Santa Claus! Thank God he lives and he lives forever. A thousand years from now, Virginia, nay 10 times 10 thousand years from now, he will continue to make glad the heart of childhood.”

Merry holidays to all.

Thursday, December 22, Noon

Today’s rain was very close to being a surprise for the metro area as cold air hung on longer than expected. Unfortunately, unless you are west of Frederick, you likely saw a cold rain with an occasional pity sleet pellet. However, out near the Blue Ridge, a couple of inches of snow has fallen and with the arrival of ridiculously cold air tomorrow morning, there are some areas out there that might have a White Christmas.

For us, we hang our hopes on the frontal passage tomorrow morning to bring at least some mood flakes, definitely the coldest temperatures we’ve seen in several years, and possibly an ugly commute. There’s no doubt that the front means business. The temperature yesterday at 4PM in Denver was 42, and at 5PM it had fallen to 5; a 37 degree drop in one hour. Other cities out west had similar hourly changes, and although the mountains will ensure that we won’t have that kind of difference in an hour, I can easily see a 20 degree drop in two hours. Combine temperatures falling below freezing with any rain or snow that accompanies the front and the inability to pre-treat roads, and it’s a recipe for nasty travel conditions. Unfortunately, all of this will likely play out in real time because there is so much uncertainty.

The cold air is presently modeled to arrive tomorrow morning with temperatures falling below freezing between 8 and 10AM. There will be a lull in precip later today and tonight, but showers and possibly a thunderstorm will accompany the front. And it’s going to get windy. Like miserable windy. So, the obvious question is, will there be any moisture on the roads, and how much, when we fall below freezing? I still don’t want to make a guess as I want to wait for another model to come into range and then update this evening. So for now I’ll leave you with the most recent NWS discussion and their take.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

A strongly forced convective line of low topped showers and/or
storms may form immediately along the front early on Friday
morning. These showers/storms could be capable of bringing down
very strong wind gusts from aloft. Strong winds will also ensue
within the cold advection behind the front itself. Wind gusts
in excess of 40 mph appear possible areawide Friday afternoon,
with gusts up to 60 mph possible in the mountains. This could
lead to downed trees and other wind damage, which could result
in numerous power outages.

An extremely cold air mass will follow this frontal passage,
and it is going to come in quite fast on Friday. Main adjustment
made to the forecast for this period was to speed up the
arrival of cold air on Friday. Temperatures in the teens to low
20s likely arrive to the I-95 corridor during the early
afternoon hours, if the recent trends in guidance are correct.
This paired with some lingering moisture behind the front could
spell trouble for the afternoon/evening commute. Any
precipitation at this point would fall as snow, and given the
rapid onset of cold temperatures, would likely flash freeze onto
road surfaces. Still some uncertainty if that happens in the
metros, but definitely an issue worth monitoring, especially
given that this will occur on the Friday before Christmas.

Thursday, December 22, 5AM

What I thought would start as cold rain this morning, may start as a freezing rain, sleet, or even snow in areas to the west of 95. If any precipitation falls in the next couple of hours, be careful as it may be icy. Temperatures should warm above freezing quickly this morning in areas east of Route 15.

I’ll update regarding Friday morning later today.

A lot of uncertainty and low confidence regarding how Friday morning plays out. What’s certain is that a cold rain develops tomorrow afternoon and continues through Thursday night. Temperatures will rise on southerly winds ahead of a very strong arctic front, and sunrise Friday will be mild with showers in the area. By mid morning, the front should arrive with very high winds and fast dropping temperatures. By early afternoon, temperatures will be below freezing and by evening in the teens. What is not certain is how much precipitation, or what type, falls with and behind the frontal passage. The gfs has been steadfast in accompanying the front with rain, and a quick changeover to snow with some light accumulations possible. Other models are not as aggressive. Even without snow, with rapidly falling temperatures, any wet conditions may become an issue.

Between now and Friday, you’re sure to hear the term “flash freeze” tossed around on local media. It’s not a common event for our area, but when it happens, it’s no joke, especially when road crews would not have the benefit of pretreatment.

It’s a pretty rare occurrence for our area, so for now we know it’s only an outside possibility and continue to monitor model runs.

A strong arctic cold front will pass through the region Friday morning bringing the coldest air of the season and ensuring at least a cold Christmas. Additionally, we should monitor the possibility of rain changing to snow and rapidly falling temperatures causing deteriorating road conditions Friday afternoon. It’s only a possibility at this point, but as the short range models begin coming into range, they should give a clearer picture.

The midday models say that we are still on track for frozen precip arriving predawn tomorrow with a change over to rain sometime before noon. I would guess that delays are likely, and closures along I95 will depend on when the changeover occurs. Obviously, areas west and north will have the greatest chance of closure.

If I see any changes, I’ll update.