Sunday

Preface

If after reading the update, you feel like you haven’t learned anything, it’s deliberate because confidence is low on specifics. My official first forecast for tomorrow is that it’s a good day to get any errands or activities wrapped up by late morning and then hover around a fire for the remainder of the day.

Saturday, January 18, 9AM

Hopefully we all got a chance to enjoy the relatively milder temperatures because the bottom is about to fall out. During the day tomorrow arctic air will begin spilling into the area and for the MLK holiday and well into the shortened work week, temperatures will struggle to reach even 20 degrees for highs, and some areas will likely fall below zero for the first time in years. I’ve been a pretty quiet regarding tomorrow because the snow portion is a tricky forecast, but the coming cold air is guaranteed. The difficulty in the forecast for Sunday for the majority of the area is the timing of the arrival of the cold air, so I’m going to keep this short and worry about details in later updates as the models come in during the day today.

Precipitation will arrive tomorrow morning from southwest to northeast across the area from 7 – 9AM. If it starts as snow, you’re locked in to 4 – 6″. If it’s raining, obviously the amount of snow will be determined by when the colder air arrives. I think areas west of 95 changeover by noon and east of 95 to the bay between noon and 2PM. Regardless, by about noon until about 5PM, the precip could become moderate to heavy. It’s a quick moving system, but I think all areas west of the bay across central MD get 2 – 4″ by the time things wrap up, and areas that are currently under a Winter Storm Warning (Frederick, Carroll, and northern Baltimore counties) end up in the 4 – 6″ range.

I’ll send out an update this evening between the upset in Kansas City and the taming of the Lions.

We Reeled One In!

Friday, Jan 19, 430AM

By the time most will be reading this, they may have surmised that the models are playing catch up with this system. The short term mesoscale model runs this morning were a thing of beauty and enough for the NWS to hoist Winter Storm Warnings across central MD including Montgomery, Howard, and all the MD/PA border counties from Frederick east including Baltimore. We can now expect 4 – 5″ of snow in those areas, and possibly more. Models suggest that a heavy band of snow will set up somewhere across central MD and if so, those areas could do even better.

At 4AM, light snow has commenced for most and it will become steadier and heavier through the morning commute. I’m secretly thinking we might even do a little better than what the models are suggesting now, but I could be just getting greedy. Regardless, I am delighted to see two things as a result of this storm. First and foremost, that it can and will still snow here. The past two years have been brutal for people that enjoy winter, so this past week has been pretty good, and frankly, therapeutic. Secondly, I really enjoy that in spite of all the advances and technology in data gathering and modeling, snow can still sneak up on us. It’s nice to recognize that we can’t control everything even if it’s just snow.

Anyway, after today’s storm, a fresh blast of cold air for the weekend and then a January thaw looks to commence. Hopefully the pattern reloads in early February and we can do another week or two of real winter. If anything changes today, I’ll update.

Mostly Wet but a Pasting for Western Areas

Friday, Jan 5, 3PM

I’m hoping that the models are wrong and things will be colder than expected, but for areas along and east of 95, this should be a little wintry mix followed by a bunch of rain. Of course, the usual rule of heading further north and west, the better the chances for snow. Regardless, precipitation arrives around noon tomorrow probably in the form of snow for most, then transitions quickly to rain for eastern areas. For the 95 corridor, there may be a quick coating on grassy surfaces but the snow should change to rain in the early afternoon. The rain/snow line should continue working north and west through the afternoon as warmer air moves in from the east, but areas along the PA line and west of Frederick may stay all snow throughout the day. Winter Storm Warnings are posted for those areas for up to 5″ of snow and maybe ice, and the lesser Winter Weather Advisories are posted for the peripheral areas to the east, including Howard.

Not to get anyone’s hopes up, but if the precipitation comes in heavy enough, there might be a few surprises even along 95. Heavier precipitation can mix the atmosphere and drag enough cold air down to overcome some warming. I’m not expecting that but it is a possibility. If that were to happen, we might be able to get a little snow thump before the transition to rain in the metro corridor.

I’ll send an update early Saturday morning for those that might have travel plans.