Tag: cold-weather

Unsettled Weekend and Then Frigid

Wednesday, January 15, 1PM

First, we officially have a winner in the Snow Contest! The first inch of snow was recorded at BWI airport at 4AM on January 6th, so Mack wins this year’s contest with a guess of 4:30AM. Congratulations, Mack, and if you’re reading this, please send contact info to me by emailing theweathermill@gmail.com.

As far as the weather is concerned, the snow from nearly 10 days ago is still on the ground which demonstrates how cold it has been since we started the new year. So far, January is running about 4 degrees below normal, and over the next week it’s going to only get colder, especially early next week.

Regarding snow potential, an Alberta clipper system to our north tomorrow will drag its associated cold front across the area so a few snow showers are not out of the question for tomorrow afternoon and evening, but it should not cause any issues. Behind the front is just more cold, dry, and blustery conditions, so right now there are no big snow events in our immediate future.

The good news is that if you are tired of the cold, by Friday afternoon and through Saturday, the temperatures should begin to moderate to where they might actually get to our normal high of the low 40’s. Precipitation potential for the weekend is still not clear, but maybe some rain Saturday evening and maybe some rain to snow Sunday depending on how quickly the cold air returns. The bad news is there is no question that the cold is returning. The MLK holiday will be very cold with temperatures not rising out of the 20’s during the day on Monday, and it gets worse. Lows Tuesday morning are expected to be in the single digits and the highs will likely not get out of the teens. It’s going to be so cold and windy that I am concerned that there may be schedule changes as a result of sub zero wind chill temperatures through much of the day Tuesday.

Precipitation is unsettled through the period, but there look to be several opportunities for snowfall over the next 7 – 10 days. Sunday/Monday is still not a done deal, and then depending on your model du jour, something may develop midweek and/or at the end of next week. Hopefully I’ll have cause to update.

It’s About Time…

2024 may be going out with a bang regardless of your New Year’s Eve plans as a strong cold front crosses the area this evening. Expect a line of showers and possible thunderstorms from about 5 to 8PM from west to east. After the frontal passage, gusty winds and seasonably cooler temperatures for tomorrow, New Year’s Day. Then, a cold air mass settles in and, as far as temperatures are concerned, we may be in for the best stretch of winter weather in several years. Models have been advertising a prolonged stretch of cold lasting at least into the second half of January. Even better, normal to even above normal precipitation is expected. Whether that translates to snow is still to be determined, but models are already starting to focus on a few threats.

First, a weak clipper system may bring some snow showers to central MD Friday evening and night, but it does not look to be anything more than cosmetic, and even that may be too strong a description. The next system for Sunday night into Monday has greater potential, but I would not expect details being ironed out until the weekend. After that, we will have to wait to see how deep and broad the trough is that sets up over the eastern half of the country to see if we can reel in a sizeable event.

Regardless, the buzz from the pros is that the next few weeks has more potential than any winter period over the past five years. Frankly, that isn’t saying much, so I’ll be trying to keep my enthusiasm in check until I’m confident of snow. But it does feel pretty good to start tracking potential storms again, and I hope to be updating more frequently these next few weeks. Fortunately, and thanks to my secret Star Buddy’s mug gift, I am ready to go!

The computer image below (courtesy of Pivotal Weather) is from today’s 12z European model run depicting 1AM Monday morning. But be warned. Long-time followers of the WM know that snow in these parts can be fickle, so don’t get your hopes up just yet. Winter here is almost always a bumpy ride.