A Couple of Possibilities

Not even two weeks into December and though we haven’t had any snow yet, the fact that we have a couple of systems to track makes me feel that this winter will be different from any of our recent debacles. Although the Pacific is classified as a La Nina (generally, not a good state for the Mid Atlantic), modeled upper air patterns continue to progress to more favorable conditions for snow lovers. In fact, if models are to be believed, by late December and early January, we could be looking at our first “blocky” pattern during winter in several years. That’s still a couple of weeks away at best, so for now we have two systems to watch.

This first is Monday, and though some of the lesser models show snow for the area, I think it’s just going to be too warm for any substantial frozen precipitation across central MD. We might get lucky and see a few slush bombs mixed in from time to time in the heavier bursts of rain, but for the most part I think Monday is literally a wash, and any snow will likely be confined to the far western ski areas in Garrett and Tucker counties.

Wednesday’s system is more interesting and though I think it will be tough to get snow across the entire area, the areas north and west of 95 could do pretty well. It’s too early to get into the details as each model run will be different this far out, but I’ll update over the weekend and also post the Snow Contest spreadsheet.