It’s Been a Long Time

I was sitting by the window this morning going through yesterday’s model runs trying to determine what each forecasted well or not so well, and there was a sudden gust of wind that created a backyard mini-blizzard. Swirling snow off the roof and trees, and it was an instant snow globe. In that moment, it occurred to me that this is the first time in several years that it legitimately feels like winter. Not to get sappy, but at a time when days like today, where snow is on the ground and temperatures struggle to reach freezing, are increasingly rare, I find it settling when they happen. There’s a sense of order and stability for me when the seasons act like they are supposed to, or at least how I’ve defined how they are supposed to. Winter in our area can be gray, dull, and seemingly endless, but my memories and snapshots of sledding on the elementary school hill during a snow storm, or a stretch of deep cold that transformed the local pond and creek into the neighborhood playground, are among my favorites. Real winter around these parts is elusive, so I say bring on more. And so much for not getting sappy. Sheesh.

Back to weather and looking ahead, after a couple of cold days today and tomorrow, temperatures should moderate ahead of our next system on Sunday. There may be enough cold air lingering that precipitation may start as a mix of slop, but right now rain looks to be the predominant precipitation type Sunday afternoon and early evening. We may have to keep an eye on Monday morning for refreezing as cold air returns behind the system, but we can worry about that later in the weekend.

Next work-week looks dry and seasonable, but there are signals on both the GFS and Euro that a storm out of the Gulf could be a player next weekend. That would be unusual for a Nina winter but not unprecedented, so we will keep an eye on that too. And looking way out past next weekend, we could be going into a deep freeze. The GFS shows some days struggling out of the teens and lows in the single digits. Frankly, and completely dreaming, but if we got a major snowstorm next weekend followed by a week or two of deep cold, you wouldn’t hear a complaint from me the rest of the winter.

Next update on Sunday evening unless something unexpected pops up.