It’s About Time…

2024 may be going out with a bang regardless of your New Year’s Eve plans as a strong cold front crosses the area this evening. Expect a line of showers and possible thunderstorms from about 5 to 8PM from west to east. After the frontal passage, gusty winds and seasonably cooler temperatures for tomorrow, New Year’s Day. Then, a cold air mass settles in and, as far as temperatures are concerned, we may be in for the best stretch of winter weather in several years. Models have been advertising a prolonged stretch of cold lasting at least into the second half of January. Even better, normal to even above normal precipitation is expected. Whether that translates to snow is still to be determined, but models are already starting to focus on a few threats.

First, a weak clipper system may bring some snow showers to central MD Friday evening and night, but it does not look to be anything more than cosmetic, and even that may be too strong a description. The next system for Sunday night into Monday has greater potential, but I would not expect details being ironed out until the weekend. After that, we will have to wait to see how deep and broad the trough is that sets up over the eastern half of the country to see if we can reel in a sizeable event.

Regardless, the buzz from the pros is that the next few weeks has more potential than any winter period over the past five years. Frankly, that isn’t saying much, so I’ll be trying to keep my enthusiasm in check until I’m confident of snow. But it does feel pretty good to start tracking potential storms again, and I hope to be updating more frequently these next few weeks. Fortunately, and thanks to my secret Star Buddy’s mug gift, I am ready to go!

The computer image below (courtesy of Pivotal Weather) is from today’s 12z European model run depicting 1AM Monday morning. But be warned. Long-time followers of the WM know that snow in these parts can be fickle, so don’t get your hopes up just yet. Winter here is almost always a bumpy ride.