Still on Track for Snow

Sunday, January 5, 11AM

I can’t recall the last time we had snow coming with a legitimate arctic air mass in place, but that’s what we have beginning tonight. The watches from yesterday have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings across the entire area, so decisions for school systems should be easy and quick. They will probably start announcing closings later this afternoon with an annoying scroll across Uncle Nam’s TV football games.

Models are still in some disagreement on how it all plays out for central MD, so my overall confidence in snow totals is not very high. For what it’s worth, my current thinking, and I am fairly confident on this point, is that snow will develop from southwest to northeast between midnight and 3AM. Snow will become moderate to heavy quickly and continue into the morning. Morning travel is not recommended as temperatures for the duration of the storm will be below freezing. By noon, I am expecting anywhere from 3 – 6″ to have accumulated. During the afternoon there will be a lull in precipitation with snizzle and maybe even freezing drizzle. During the evening, another steady area of snow should develop and add an additional 1 – 2″ to freshen up any crusty snowpack for a total of 4 – 8″.

Regarding the low confidence in snow totals, for central MD I think the chances of being under the 4″ threshold is less than being over the 8″ threshold. This storm will be packing a punch in the morning hours as warm air from the system collides with the arctic air. If we are going to get the higher amounts, it would most likely be during the morning hours. The afternoon lull and evening 1 – 2″ seems reasonable to me. It’s the morning that could, and hopefully will provide some surprises.

If I see anything different, I’ll send out shorter updates during the day.