Sunday, February 2, Noon
Now that our recent pattern has broken down, we can talk about how cold its been. This past January was 4.0 degrees below normal at BWI, which really isn’t that cold, but it was the coldest month since 2014. Unfortunately, precipitation was much below normal, so we are still below normal for snowfall. The only decent snow was on January 6, but because of the cold, we had snow cover for about three weeks, and some remnant snow piles are still around.
So, now that we are two-thirds through meteorological winter, what’s next? If you haven’t heard, the rodent Phil saw his shadow this morning so folklore says we have six weeks of winter to go. I wouldn’t read too much into that since over his 138 year history, an early spring has only been predicted 21 times. But, over the next couple of days, we will slide to the south side of a warm and cold air boundary with tomorrow and Tuesday being a prelude to spring. Enjoy it because the front looks to slip south Tuesday night as a wave of low pressure approaches, bringing much colder air and a chance of mixed precipitation on Wednesday. It’s too early to for details, but Wednesday afternoon and evening could be sloppy. I’ll update as things come into better focus.
Long term and the remainder of February, the next couple of weeks look seasonal with temperatures and precipitation averaging around normal as we oscillate back and forth on either side of the boundary. There will be several chances at some snow, but it will depend on what side of the boundary we are on. First chance is on Wednesday. By mid month, the early January pattern looks to reload and models are suggesting that winter ends on a cold and possibly snowy note. Way too early to get our hopes up, but with less than 4 weeks until March, let’s hope they’re right.
More on Wednesday’s potential tomorrow.
The Weather Mill 