A strong cold front will cross the area overnight Wednesday into Thursday and may bring some frozen precipitation to central MD. It won’t be a lot of moisture and I’m leaning towards temperatures being above freezing in the metro areas, but some models show heavy enough bursts of snow that may drop temperatures quickly, so it does bear watching. Hopefully the short range models have a better handle on things in the morning, so I’ll update then.

In the meantime, the Snow Contest is posted below, and unless something really crazy happens, there will not be a winner on Thursday. If there are any errors, email the elves at theweathermill@gmail.com

I’ll be finalizing the guesses for the Snow Contest early tomorrow, so if you want to enter a guess, follow this link. Good luck!

The first real cold front of the season crossed the area last night, and in its wake there is upslope snow falling in the mountains to the west. Places like Wisp, Canaan Valley, and Snowshoe could get as much as 18″ of snow before things die down early Saturday. For us, some precipitation looks to develop from north to south late tomorrow morning as a storm pinwheels off the northeast coast. In the times of heavier precipitation, there may be enough mixing down of the colder air aloft that many areas could see a period of snow, including central MD. It shouldn’t amount to anything as far as accumulations, but some heavier snow showers are possible during the afternoon that could cause limited visibility on the roads. If nothing else, it would at least feel like the holidays are nearing.

Also, the Snow Contest is still open for guesses!

As we round the corner into the last half of November, thoughts begin turning to the holidays, family gatherings, spiked hot cocoa, and the Snow Contest! Last winter we finally broke the snow drought, and though the forecasts for this winter are not very encouraging, we all know that doesn’t mean much. As a matter of fact, there is currently a Winter Storm Watch for Garrett county for late this week where up to a foot of snow and blizzard conditions are expected. So, although I have low overall expectations this year, I am always hopeful that we will luck into at least a few weeks of real winter and a few decent snow chances.

Presently, there isn’t anything definitive on any models for our area, but I am hoping to get off to an early start and picking December 8th, at 7PM, for our first inch of snow at BWI airport. As always, don’t read anything into my pick because it really is just a guess, and even more, a prayer to get a Monday off of school. To make your guess, just follow the link below to this year’s Snow Contest. Good luck!

Click here to enter the 2024-2025 Snow Contest

Here is the complete list of past winners:

2023 – 2024 Shelley Clemens

2022 – 2023 No winner

2021 – 2022 Andrea Katkow and Alessandra Ciccone

2020 – 2021 Kristin Taylor

2019 – 2020 Matt Berkowitz, Tiffany Carmean, and Stacy Cashmark

2018 – 2019 Stacy Cashmark

2017 – 2018 Rigged event

2016 – 2017 Sue Carlson

2015 – 2016  Carol A. Collins

2014 – 2015  Zenon Fernandes and Martin Vandenberge

2013 – 2014  Margaret Hunt

2012 – 2013  Katie Lovell

2011 – 2012  Frank Eastham

2010 – 2011  Pat Pecor

2009 – 2010  Barb Gilmartin and Carrie Quintavalla

2008 – 2009  Carol A. Collins

2007 – 2008  Carla Stocksdale

630AM, Friday, February 16

Snow will develop across the region around 10PM tonight and continue until about sunrise Saturday. A general 3 – 4 inches is expected across the entire area, though there will be some locally higher totals wherever the heaviest bands set up. This is a quick moving system but will bring a period of heavy snow between midnight and 4AM so be careful on the way home from any therapy appointments late tonight.

Conditions will improve quickly mid-morning Saturday.

10AM, Wednesday, February 14

A small system may bring some snow overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Right now it looks like a couple of inches possible with some icy roads early Saturday. This isn’t the kind of system that could morph into a big event, but I’ll update periodically this week for those with plans early Saturday.

645 AM Tuesday, February 13

Areas right along 95 are currently in a dry slot but snow is redeveloping and moving east. Expect several hours of moderate to heavy snow from about 7 until 10AM.

5AM, Tuesday, February 13

The models have not flinched at all and say rain should change to snow around 7 AM across the area. The intensity of the snow would be the most challenging aspect of the morning commute as it would be like driving in a snow globe. Roads would deteriorate rapidly as they will quickly become slush covered. Reading reports from other stations, the transition to snow has begun out west and local surface and dew point temperatures are beginning to fall quickly so I will be radar watching the radar precipitation depiction to will the snow/rain line eastward. From the reports I’ve read, the transition is quick and the impact is immediate.

Just to give an idea of the potential problems this morning, here is a snapshot of a projected radar image at 7AM. If this is accurate, it’s going to be a stellar winter wonderland as these would be 1 – 2” per hour rates for several hours. Unfortunately our ratios won’t be 10:1 but that won’t change the intensity. Conditions improve by noon.

Monday, February 13, 8PM

All evening model runs like the idea of rain changing to snow before sunrise tomorrow morning, and possibly becoming very heavy across areas north of about the Inter County Connector in Montgomery county. Some of the totals being spit out by the mesoscale models are ridiculous as they are programmed to do a 10 to 1 ratio and that isn’t likely as temperatures are going to be very marginal. I would ignore any computer generated snowfall maps from the models like the NAM, RAP, and HRRR, but regardless of how much snow actually accumulates, the bigger issue would be the snow intensity rates that these models are suggesting. This is a very dynamic system and some areas may see incredible snowfall rates and even thunder-snow that would make for hazardous driving conditions. Winter Weather Advisories are out for northwestern Montgomery, all of Howard, and all counties bordering the PA line for Tuesday morning.

I am not very confident but my thinking is that rain will change to snow from northwest to southeast from 5-8AM and be moderate to heavy. Keep in mind that because of the rain, roads can not be brined so conditions have the potential to deteriorate very quickly. Even if air temperatures are above freezing, if there is heavy snow falling, surface temperatures will cool quickly and slush would accumulate. As far as snow accumulations, I think the elevated areas of Carroll and northern areas along the PA border have the best chance of 3 or more inches with a sloppy 1-2” across the rest of the areas in the advisories. Conditions look to be vastly improved by about noon tomorrow.

Again, I am not very confident and can see this being pretty lame, but it is difficult to ignore the consensus from all the models. I’ll update with a brief post later this evening after the 0z NAM nest runs.

I can not recall a recent event where models have adjusted so severely so close to an event. As a result, what looked looked to be an all rain event for central MD is suddenly looking a bit more promising for some wintry conditions. All models today have come south with the storm which may allow enough colder air to settle in during the predawn hours and change the rain to snow. Right now the areas most likely to see accumulations are along the MD/PA border in Frederick, Carroll, and Baltimore counties where, believe it or not, Winter Storm Watches have been posted for upwards of 5 inches of snow. Presently, that does not include southern Baltimore or Howard counties, but one more tick south and central MD would also be in the game. I’ll be watching the evening model runs closely and will update later this evening.