Not much to add as there are no significant changes regarding the system for Thursday. Precipitation is still expected to arrive predawn Thursday morning and for most areas be in the form of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Areas east of I95 will be the first to change to all rain, and models show that happening shortly after sunrise. For areas west of I95, frozen precipitation looks as though it will hold on until mid morning and then change to rain. Areas well west beyond Frederick are looking at a significant ice storm. One caution regarding theses systems is that CAD (cold air damming) is difficult to predict. In general, freezing conditions hold on longer than modeled, but that does not mean that will happen with this system. For a refresher, the bottom of page 1 of this link gives a great explanation of CAD.

In any case, Thursday morning looks icy with a good possibility of schedule changes, especially areas along and west of I95.

Our first winter event is looking likely for Thursday beginning just before sunrise and continuing through the morning with a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. This does look to adversely impact travel and schedules for at least Thursday morning.

Presently, a storm system is expected to move north Wednesday night along the western Appalachian range, which puts us on the warm side of the system. However, strong high pressure to the north will keep cold air east of the mountains trapped at the surface setting up a mixed bag scenario. As the storm to our west weakens, a new storm will form along the Atlantic seaboard. The further south that storm develops, the greater potential for a prolonged frozen event here in central MD. Right now, the new storm is modeled to form too far north to keep us frozen throughout the entire day Thursday, but I’ll update periodically as the short-range models are becoming in range.

For now, an impactful winter event is likely Thursday morning from about 6AM until at least mid-morning. I’ll update this evening.

The much advertised pattern-change to a more wintry scenario is looking more likely as models are picking up on the blocking pattern that is developing in the northern hemisphere. If it comes to fruition as being modeled, I can’t guarantee snow, but I know undoubtedly that our chances will increase dramatically.

I’m going to give it a couple more days before discussing the potential for the end of next week and beyond, but just know the elves here are gearing up to be bustling soon.

Last week, a couple of the models liked this Friday for our first snow event, but they’ve backed off from that as cold air continues to be lacking for our area. However, looking ahead, all models suggest that the indices for cold and snow improve around mid-month so I’m hopeful that we will have something to track in a week or so.

In the meantime, here is the snow contest! Good luck to all that entered.

I’ll take entries up until I make the spreadsheet, which I hope to do this evening. Time is short as there looks to be some possibilities in the next few weeks. Good luck!

Snow Contest

We usher in December tomorrow so it’s time for another season of the Weather Mill, and as always we will start the winter season with the 16th Annual Weather Mill Snow Contest. Simply follow the link and pick the day and time that you think the first one inch snow of the year will occur at BWI airport. I will take submissions and edits through next weekend, Sunday, December 4th.

Snow Contest

Last year’s winners were Andrea Katkow and Alessandra Ciccone, and there will be a large-scale event for the distribution of their major awards in the near future.

As far as what to expect this winter, we are in our third consecutive year of a La Nina which typically does not bode well for mid-Atlantic snow lovers. In fact, the next week or so will likely test the patience of those of us looking for some snow to add to the holiday atmosphere, but the good news is that there have been some encouraging signals in the mid to long range models recently. They have been advertising a deep trough developing over the eastern half of the US mid-month which might be a precursor to good things ahead. Hopefully, not only will that come to fruition, but also that it will be a persistent pattern for the winter.

In the meantime, things will be pretty quiet as we wait for some real winter weather to arrive. Good luck to those that enter the contest!

Hard to believe, but tomorrow could feature a few hours of the most intense winter weather we’ve seen in years. Rain develops overnight and eventually changes to snow during the morning, and then may become heavy, accompanied by gusty winds and falling temperatures.

By the time things wrap up in afternoon, anywhere from 1-3” of accumulation along and east of 95, and 3-5” in the western and northern areas. Roads could become snow covered during the heaviest snow, but a strong March sun should clear things quickly when things wrap up in the early afternoon. Once the sun sets, any wet areas would freeze as temperatures fall well below freezing.

After tomorrow, spring arrives in earnest early next week.

Roads this morning should be just wet for most areas, but the morning commute may feature some moderate to heavy snow resulting in reduced visibility and some slush in areas west of 95 and and north of the ICC.

The first part of the weekend still holds some potential for moderate snow as well, though if it happens, it looks to fall during the daytime hours on Saturday, which would reduce the impacts on travel as the March sun is getting higher in the sky.

As crazy as it sounds, we need to keep an eye on Wednesday morning for the chance of a heavy period of snow west of 95 and north of DC. Also, the weekend looks iffy too. More as things come into better focus.

I’m of the opinion that March blows. Bring on spring.

A cold front crossing the region this morning will bring an end to our spring preview, and tonight, snow will develop after midnight and continue into the morning Sunday. A general 1 – 2” is expected and should end by noon tomorrow. Morning travel could obviously be icy, but later in the day should be fine.