Snow Contest & Tonight / Early Sunday

Saturday, December 13, 11AM

First things first, the winner of the Snow Contest this year is Mikaela Lidgard with her guess of December 4, at 8AM, and the actual first inch of snow at BWI was recorded on December 5, at noon. To be honest, I was caught off-guard because at my house well north of BWI, there was only a coating, so I was surprised to see that the airport did so much better. But, as has been the case the last few winters, the southern areas have done better than the north Baltimore metro area. I was also surprised that no one in the contest (125 entries) picked December 5th as the first snow as it has occurred three or four times since we started doing this some 17 years ago. Anyway, congratulations to Mikaela! Her coffee mug is being ordered and will be on the way soon (as is last year’s winner’s mug, Shelley Clemens!).

As far as tonight, believe it or not, I think it might actually snow! I will say that there is a significant bust possibility because of the type system that we are dealing with. A strong cold front is moving across the midwest today, and as it approaches the coast, a low will develop along the front. We’ve been burned pretty bad in the past by systems like this as it is difficult for models to pinpoint where and when the storm will form, but there is undoubtedly solid model agreement that it should happen far enough south and west for central MD to get 2 – 4″ of snow overnight. The area most likely to see accumulating snow is again from I-270/ MD Route 15 and east, with the possibility of heavy snow occurring along the 95 corridor for several hours overnight. There may be some scattered light rain or snow showers up until about 10 or 11PM, but around midnight, the precipitation should become steadier. The front associated with the system has plenty of cold air to work with, so any rain should change to snow quickly once the steady precipitation begins. By morning, all areas will be below freezing and will stay that way through the day as the very cold air is ushered in on strong northwest winds. Tomorrow is going to look very wintry wherever it snows tonight because of the cold temperatures, gusty winds, and blowing snow.

Today is pretty busy for me, but I’ll try to send an update early this evening if anything changes.

The 18th Annual Snow Contest

The Weather Mill is back for another year! It’s hard to believe that we’ve been doing this for over eighteen years, but here we are heading into another holiday season when snow optimism always seems to run high. The majority of forecasts that I have seen are bullish that central Maryland could see near average to even above average seasonal snowfall, but with the Pacific in a La Niña phase, I’ll believe it when I see it. Regardless, the Snow Contest is back! Anyone can enter, and to win, simply forecast the day and time when you think the first inch snowfall will occur. The closest guess is the winner. I’ll keep the contest open for guesses through Thanksgiving weekend.

Presently, there are no storm systems on the horizon, but I have been reading some forecasts that suggest December could be a decent winter month for the eastern half of the country. Personally, I would prefer a cold and snowy December as it just seems to add to the spirit of the season, so I am picking December 13th, at 11PM. As always, don’t read anything into my pick because it really is just speculation. To enter the contest, just follow the link below and complete the form. Good luck!

Click here to enter the 2025-2026 Snow Contest

Here is the complete list of past winners:

2024 – 2025 Robb MacKie

2023 – 2024 Shelley Clemens

2022 – 2023 No winner due to lack of snow

2021 – 2022 Andrea Katkow and Alessandra Ciccone

2020 – 2021 Kristin Taylor

2019 – 2020 Matt Berkowitz, Tiffany Carmean, and Stacy Cashmark

2018 – 2019 Stacy Cashmark

2017 – 2018 Must have been rigged because I had the closest guess

2016 – 2017 Sue Carlson

2015 – 2016 Carol A. Collins

2014 – 2015 Zenon Fernandes and Martin Vandenberge

2013 – 2014 Margaret Hunt

2012 – 2013 Katie Lovell

2011 – 2012 Frank Eastham

2010 – 2011 Pat Pecor

2009 – 2010 Barb Gilmartin and Carrie Quintavalla

2008 – 2009 Carol A. Collins

2007 – 2008 Carla Stocksdale

Wave After Wave After Wave

Friday, February 7, 8AM

During the cold stretch in January, the jet stream looked like a roller coaster with a big northern arc (ridge) over the western US, and a big dip (trough) across the eastern US. This is important because the jet stream acts as a boundary between warm air and cold air. An oversimplified explanation is that if the jet stream is to your north, it’s generally warm, and if it’s positioned to your south, it’s cold. Since we were in a trough through most of January, and the jet stream was south of us, arctic air was plentiful. Since that pattern broke a couple of weeks ago, the jet stream has stretched out and is now more zonal (west to east) without a big ridge or trough. The chatter among weather enthusiasts was that this period would probably be a break from winter until around mid month when the pattern looks to change again with a more “buckled” jet stream (and the pattern does look really good for the second half of the month). What no one really expected was that this period of zonal flow would give us multiple waves of winter weather, but that’s exactly what is happening. Waves of low pressure are sliding along the boundary, and depending on what side of the boundary we are on for any specific wave, we could have rain, snow, or a mix. This looks to continue for the next week or so with precipitation possible every two or three days.

First up is the system for tomorrow. Like yesterday’s event, this will also be slopfest. Some form of precip develops across the area around 1 – 2PM and continues into the overnight hours. Temperatures look to be a little bit colder for most areas, so tomorrow afternoon could be sketchy if you’re planning to be out. The one thing going for us is that it will be during day light so that should mitigate a lot of icing on roads, but know that by about 5PM, if temperatures are still below freezing, things could deteriorate very quickly with the setting sun. Tomorrow is a good day to find something to do at home.

After tomorrow comes the system on Tuesday/Wednesday that already has everyone talking. Right now it looks like we will be on the cold side of the boundary, and cold enough for accumulating snow. Models are about the same with timing which is Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning, but are not in agreement on the exact placement of the boundary or the amount of precipitation. For now, just know that winter weather is likely beginning after noon on Tuesday, and it could be in the form of moderate snow. Any accumulation numbers you’re reading or hearing now are just a guess, and I’d certainly be skeptical of the big numbers that the GFS is tossing out. Some GFS runs have produced pretty snow maps that are a lot of fun to look at, but it has not been consistent from run to run so don’t believe them. The Euro has been more consistent with a moderate event that frankly looks more convincing. I’ll update periodically over the weekend.

Winter Reset

Sunday, February 2, Noon

Now that our recent pattern has broken down, we can talk about how cold its been. This past January was 4.0 degrees below normal at BWI, which really isn’t that cold, but it was the coldest month since 2014. Unfortunately, precipitation was much below normal, so we are still below normal for snowfall. The only decent snow was on January 6, but because of the cold, we had snow cover for about three weeks, and some remnant snow piles are still around.

So, now that we are two-thirds through meteorological winter, what’s next? If you haven’t heard, the rodent Phil saw his shadow this morning so folklore says we have six weeks of winter to go. I wouldn’t read too much into that since over his 138 year history, an early spring has only been predicted 21 times. But, over the next couple of days, we will slide to the south side of a warm and cold air boundary with tomorrow and Tuesday being a prelude to spring. Enjoy it because the front looks to slip south Tuesday night as a wave of low pressure approaches, bringing much colder air and a chance of mixed precipitation on Wednesday. It’s too early to for details, but Wednesday afternoon and evening could be sloppy. I’ll update as things come into better focus.

Long term and the remainder of February, the next couple of weeks look seasonal with temperatures and precipitation averaging around normal as we oscillate back and forth on either side of the boundary. There will be several chances at some snow, but it will depend on what side of the boundary we are on. First chance is on Wednesday. By mid month, the early January pattern looks to reload and models are suggesting that winter ends on a cold and possibly snowy note. Way too early to get our hopes up, but with less than 4 weeks until March, let’s hope they’re right.

More on Wednesday’s potential tomorrow.

Sunday

Preface

If after reading the update, you feel like you haven’t learned anything, it’s deliberate because confidence is low on specifics. My official first forecast for tomorrow is that it’s a good day to get any errands or activities wrapped up by late morning and then hover around a fire for the remainder of the day.

Saturday, January 18, 9AM

Hopefully we all got a chance to enjoy the relatively milder temperatures because the bottom is about to fall out. During the day tomorrow arctic air will begin spilling into the area and for the MLK holiday and well into the shortened work week, temperatures will struggle to reach even 20 degrees for highs, and some areas will likely fall below zero for the first time in years. I’ve been a pretty quiet regarding tomorrow because the snow portion is a tricky forecast, but the coming cold air is guaranteed. The difficulty in the forecast for Sunday for the majority of the area is the timing of the arrival of the cold air, so I’m going to keep this short and worry about details in later updates as the models come in during the day today.

Precipitation will arrive tomorrow morning from southwest to northeast across the area from 7 – 9AM. If it starts as snow, you’re locked in to 4 – 6″. If it’s raining, obviously the amount of snow will be determined by when the colder air arrives. I think areas west of 95 changeover by noon and east of 95 to the bay between noon and 2PM. Regardless, by about noon until about 5PM, the precip could become moderate to heavy. It’s a quick moving system, but I think all areas west of the bay across central MD get 2 – 4″ by the time things wrap up, and areas that are currently under a Winter Storm Warning (Frederick, Carroll, and northern Baltimore counties) end up in the 4 – 6″ range.

I’ll send out an update this evening between the upset in Kansas City and the taming of the Lions.

Unsettled Weekend and Then Frigid

Wednesday, January 15, 1PM

First, we officially have a winner in the Snow Contest! The first inch of snow was recorded at BWI airport at 4AM on January 6th, so Mack wins this year’s contest with a guess of 4:30AM. Congratulations, Mack, and if you’re reading this, please send contact info to me by emailing theweathermill@gmail.com.

As far as the weather is concerned, the snow from nearly 10 days ago is still on the ground which demonstrates how cold it has been since we started the new year. So far, January is running about 4 degrees below normal, and over the next week it’s going to only get colder, especially early next week.

Regarding snow potential, an Alberta clipper system to our north tomorrow will drag its associated cold front across the area so a few snow showers are not out of the question for tomorrow afternoon and evening, but it should not cause any issues. Behind the front is just more cold, dry, and blustery conditions, so right now there are no big snow events in our immediate future.

The good news is that if you are tired of the cold, by Friday afternoon and through Saturday, the temperatures should begin to moderate to where they might actually get to our normal high of the low 40’s. Precipitation potential for the weekend is still not clear, but maybe some rain Saturday evening and maybe some rain to snow Sunday depending on how quickly the cold air returns. The bad news is there is no question that the cold is returning. The MLK holiday will be very cold with temperatures not rising out of the 20’s during the day on Monday, and it gets worse. Lows Tuesday morning are expected to be in the single digits and the highs will likely not get out of the teens. It’s going to be so cold and windy that I am concerned that there may be schedule changes as a result of sub zero wind chill temperatures through much of the day Tuesday.

Precipitation is unsettled through the period, but there look to be several opportunities for snowfall over the next 7 – 10 days. Sunday/Monday is still not a done deal, and then depending on your model du jour, something may develop midweek and/or at the end of next week. Hopefully I’ll have cause to update.

The Biggest Snowfall In Years?

Saturday, January 4, 9:30AM

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Watches across all of MD for the expected snowfall late Sunday night and Monday. The exact track has yet to be determined, but the major models suggest at least 4″ of snow for the entire area beginning around 1AM Monday morning. With temperatures expected to be below freezing across central MD for the duration of the storm (and probably for the entire workweek after), travel and schedules will likely be impacted. For the weather nerds (that is a term of endearment), more details follow.

A couple of days ago, I was concerned about a north trend in both the GFS and the Euro. Long- time followers of The Weather Mill know of this specter and how it can bring simultaneous tears of joy or heartache depending on the circumstances. January 30, 2010, is an example. That was the winter of the three blizzards; one, the week before Christmas, 2009, and the two that were days apart in February 2010. After the blizzard in December, we settled into a non-snow pattern through late January. Then, a storm that was expected to bring snow to the Carolinas, was suddenly nudged by the north trend specter and gave us a decent snowstorm bringing tears of joy to Mid-Atlantic snow-weenies, while Carolinians wept. You won’t find the term “north trend specter” in any meteorological textbook, but I assure you, it exists.

Anyway, back to our current storm. As I said, a couple of days ago I was becoming concerned that this north trend was happening to us, and as many of you know, it happens to us with frustrating regularity. But what was once our storm, was now becoming Philly’s, or even worse, New York or Boston’s. Every six hours, model run after model run kept ticking the storm north. Where we once were bulls-eyed by the storm, we quickly became underneath it as areas north of the Mason Dixon Line looked to get the goods. But, in a single run overnight Thursday, the Euro went from slipping north to suddenly way south. Richmond snow-weenies were high-fiving and northern MD’ers were kicking dust bunnies. The gfs also starting ticking south but not as drastically as the Euro. We were still going to get snow, but there is still a sickening feeling seeing (ridiculous and wrong) snow maps suggesting a foot of snow, and then six hours later seeing the same map with 3″ of snow. I know it’s unhealthy and I probably need medication, but once I get teased by a snow map, regardless of how much the 5% of me that is rational resists it, I get greedy.

Since then, the Euro stopped sagging south, stabilized, and in recent runs has ticked a bit north, but still too far south for central MD to get into the really greedy stuff. Don’t get me wrong. There’s a lot to like about the Euro. With the heaviest axis of snow to the south, so is the warm air, and as a result, we are in the low to mid 20’s all day Monday with a steady, fluffy snow that isn’t going anywhere. Per the latest run of the Euro, about 4″ of snow falls at the Mason Dixon Line and then increases to about 6″ in Baltimore and to 8″ just north of DC. So, a general 4 – 8″ of snow, and probably exceeding my biggest snowfall at home in years. I should be satisfied.

Meanwhile, the GFS is similar to the Euro but brings the goods a little further north. Like the Euro, snow starts around 1AM on Monday morning, but is heavier into the morning commute, maybe a dry-slot of light snizzle during the day, and then another round in the evening as the upper level low passes and transfers to the coast. Total snowfall on the GFS is about 6″ along the Mason Dixon Line, 8″ around Baltimore, and nearly a foot closer to DC.

Then there’s the NAM. The NAM is like your drunk uncle that passes out watching football during the holidays and wakes up occasionally to yell at the terrible call of a play on TV that’s actually a commercial for Levi’s. The thing is, that every once in a while he gets lucky, wakes up at the right time and makes a very good observation. Uncle NAM is showing a general 8 -10″ snowfall across all of central MD that frankly, isn’t too hard to believe. Just know that with snow, I’m irrational.

My personal opinion is that the dust hasn’t settled yet and we don’t know where the biggest axis of snow will be, and most importantly, how we get there. I do think it’s going to snow, and it’s going to be impactful. I just don’t know what path we end up taking. It would be great to wake up on Monday morning to moderate snow that continues all day and then stops just after sunset, but I don’t think it plays out like that. We are going to have to watch for all the regular caveats around here including the dry slot, a warm layer in the mid-levels that changes snow to sleet, and the dreaded “rob Peter to pay Paul” transfer of energy to the coast. I’ll save the meaning of that weather term for another day.

I’ll update later today.

We Reeled One In!

Friday, Jan 19, 430AM

By the time most will be reading this, they may have surmised that the models are playing catch up with this system. The short term mesoscale model runs this morning were a thing of beauty and enough for the NWS to hoist Winter Storm Warnings across central MD including Montgomery, Howard, and all the MD/PA border counties from Frederick east including Baltimore. We can now expect 4 – 5″ of snow in those areas, and possibly more. Models suggest that a heavy band of snow will set up somewhere across central MD and if so, those areas could do even better.

At 4AM, light snow has commenced for most and it will become steadier and heavier through the morning commute. I’m secretly thinking we might even do a little better than what the models are suggesting now, but I could be just getting greedy. Regardless, I am delighted to see two things as a result of this storm. First and foremost, that it can and will still snow here. The past two years have been brutal for people that enjoy winter, so this past week has been pretty good, and frankly, therapeutic. Secondly, I really enjoy that in spite of all the advances and technology in data gathering and modeling, snow can still sneak up on us. It’s nice to recognize that we can’t control everything even if it’s just snow.

Anyway, after today’s storm, a fresh blast of cold air for the weekend and then a January thaw looks to commence. Hopefully the pattern reloads in early February and we can do another week or two of real winter. If anything changes today, I’ll update.

Looking Ahead to Friday

Wednesday, Jan 17, 10AM

It’s been a good week if you like snow and winter weather. Obviously, I love falling snow, but I also enjoy when the snow sticks around for awhile. A fresh arctic air mass after a snow is what I would order every time because as far as I am concerned, if it’s going to be winter, it might as well winter.

Anyway, not much to say about the system on Friday because there isn’t a consensus on how it plays out. Right now it looks like snow begins around sunrise on Friday and continues into the afternoon with a general 1-3″ across the region, with the lesser amounts to the south and higher amounts north. Much of the forecast will focus on whether the system tracks to our south, right over us, or to the north. To maximize our snow potential, we need it to track to the south and right now most models have it too far north to bring much snow, so it’s too soon to say how it plays out.

I’ll keep an eye on it and update from to time.

Possibly a Busy Week of Winter

An arctic front will cross the area by afternoon today bringing high wind, a possible lunch time snow shower, and much colder temperatures. Blustery conditions continue through the rest of the holiday weekend with a passing flurry from time to time leading into Monday night and early Tuesday’s possible first snow event of the season. Well, actually, it would be the first in two seasons so fingers crossed that it continues to head in the right direction.

The Monday night system looked much better on the gfs model a few days ago and then completely fizzled out, but a heartbeat has returned and now other models are coming around to the same idea. If they are correct in their output, then light snow would develop in central MD after midnight Monday night and continue into the morning. Presently, it does not look like a major event but with cold temperatures in place, Tuesday morning’s commute would be impacted. Again, this is prefaced on if the gfs and nam models are correct. Hopefully the European model comes around today. I’ll update later today or early Monday morning.

After Tuesday, cold, dry conditions continue through the week until a possible storm system approaches the area Friday. A lot of uncertainty with that system, so more on that later. For now, I’m just happy that there is a chance of a region-wide accumulating (albeit minor) snow event.