Mostly Wet but a Pasting for Western Areas

Friday, Jan 5, 3PM

I’m hoping that the models are wrong and things will be colder than expected, but for areas along and east of 95, this should be a little wintry mix followed by a bunch of rain. Of course, the usual rule of heading further north and west, the better the chances for snow. Regardless, precipitation arrives around noon tomorrow probably in the form of snow for most, then transitions quickly to rain for eastern areas. For the 95 corridor, there may be a quick coating on grassy surfaces but the snow should change to rain in the early afternoon. The rain/snow line should continue working north and west through the afternoon as warmer air moves in from the east, but areas along the PA line and west of Frederick may stay all snow throughout the day. Winter Storm Warnings are posted for those areas for up to 5″ of snow and maybe ice, and the lesser Winter Weather Advisories are posted for the peripheral areas to the east, including Howard.

Not to get anyone’s hopes up, but if the precipitation comes in heavy enough, there might be a few surprises even along 95. Heavier precipitation can mix the atmosphere and drag enough cold air down to overcome some warming. I’m not expecting that but it is a possibility. If that were to happen, we might be able to get a little snow thump before the transition to rain in the metro corridor.

I’ll send an update early Saturday morning for those that might have travel plans.

Happy New Year and Maybe Better Winter Times Ahead

As we begin the new year, it looks like our chances for winter weather may finally be increasing with our first chance coming next weekend. All models are indicating that a storm will impact the area next weekend, but the track, strength, and type of precipitation are unknown. The good news is that models have been very consistent that a storm will develop and impact the area next Saturday night and Sunday, and those same models have been fairly consistent that at least some snow will fall across much of the region. The bad news is that we are still 6 days away so things will definitely change. I am reluctant to say it, but some of the output is very encouraging, so if models remain consistent and we get within a reasonable time frame, I’ll begin sending more specific updates.

Regarding the winter in general, I am disappointed that we didn’t get any real winter weather in December, but given the Pacific is an El Nino, things have been progressing as expected. For me, it’s difficult to remain patient because it feels like forever since we’ve had any snow (BWI has recently surpassed 700 days without an inch of snow), but El Nino’s generally deliver in the second half of winter, so a December shutout is not uncommon. Looking at the long range models, they still indicate that late January and February hold some promise, though no one should blame us if we take a “I’ll believe it when I see it” attitude. Hopefully we get on the board this weekend and can put our dismal losing streak to rest!

Regardless, Happy New Year, and I look forward to more posting opportunities in the near future!

Here’s the Snow Contest!

There isn’t any snow on the immediate horizon, but the rainstorm expected this Sunday reminds me of a rain event that we had around the same time in December 2009. I doubt I have to remind anyone of what happened about ten days later that month. Interestingly, there does look to be some better potential in the in the long range leading up to break, though I am going to try to wait to see if it’s a genuine trend or just another head fake like we’ve seen the last several years. I say try because already this year feels different than any of our recent winters, and different would be very good.

In the meantime, feel free to peruse or save the Snow Contest below. Good luck!

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