We Reeled One In!

Friday, Jan 19, 430AM

By the time most will be reading this, they may have surmised that the models are playing catch up with this system. The short term mesoscale model runs this morning were a thing of beauty and enough for the NWS to hoist Winter Storm Warnings across central MD including Montgomery, Howard, and all the MD/PA border counties from Frederick east including Baltimore. We can now expect 4 – 5″ of snow in those areas, and possibly more. Models suggest that a heavy band of snow will set up somewhere across central MD and if so, those areas could do even better.

At 4AM, light snow has commenced for most and it will become steadier and heavier through the morning commute. I’m secretly thinking we might even do a little better than what the models are suggesting now, but I could be just getting greedy. Regardless, I am delighted to see two things as a result of this storm. First and foremost, that it can and will still snow here. The past two years have been brutal for people that enjoy winter, so this past week has been pretty good, and frankly, therapeutic. Secondly, I really enjoy that in spite of all the advances and technology in data gathering and modeling, snow can still sneak up on us. It’s nice to recognize that we can’t control everything even if it’s just snow.

Anyway, after today’s storm, a fresh blast of cold air for the weekend and then a January thaw looks to commence. Hopefully the pattern reloads in early February and we can do another week or two of real winter. If anything changes today, I’ll update.

Looking Ahead to Friday

Wednesday, Jan 17, 10AM

It’s been a good week if you like snow and winter weather. Obviously, I love falling snow, but I also enjoy when the snow sticks around for awhile. A fresh arctic air mass after a snow is what I would order every time because as far as I am concerned, if it’s going to be winter, it might as well winter.

Anyway, not much to say about the system on Friday because there isn’t a consensus on how it plays out. Right now it looks like snow begins around sunrise on Friday and continues into the afternoon with a general 1-3″ across the region, with the lesser amounts to the south and higher amounts north. Much of the forecast will focus on whether the system tracks to our south, right over us, or to the north. To maximize our snow potential, we need it to track to the south and right now most models have it too far north to bring much snow, so it’s too soon to say how it plays out.

I’ll keep an eye on it and update from to time.

Possibly a Busy Week of Winter

An arctic front will cross the area by afternoon today bringing high wind, a possible lunch time snow shower, and much colder temperatures. Blustery conditions continue through the rest of the holiday weekend with a passing flurry from time to time leading into Monday night and early Tuesday’s possible first snow event of the season. Well, actually, it would be the first in two seasons so fingers crossed that it continues to head in the right direction.

The Monday night system looked much better on the gfs model a few days ago and then completely fizzled out, but a heartbeat has returned and now other models are coming around to the same idea. If they are correct in their output, then light snow would develop in central MD after midnight Monday night and continue into the morning. Presently, it does not look like a major event but with cold temperatures in place, Tuesday morning’s commute would be impacted. Again, this is prefaced on if the gfs and nam models are correct. Hopefully the European model comes around today. I’ll update later today or early Monday morning.

After Tuesday, cold, dry conditions continue through the week until a possible storm system approaches the area Friday. A lot of uncertainty with that system, so more on that later. For now, I’m just happy that there is a chance of a region-wide accumulating (albeit minor) snow event.

The El Nino is Flexing

Monday, Jan 8, 12PM

Any drought conditions that are leftover from the region-wide dry fall are certainly going to be erased over the next week thanks to the sub tropical jet. Two major storms will impact the area over the next week beginning tomorrow, and unfortunately they are both going to be rain.

For tomorrow, rain will develop around sunrise and become heavy in the afternoon and evening. To make a crummy day even worse, the rain will accompanied by gusty winds. Tomorrow evening looks to be the worst for both the heaviest rain and highest wind gusts with 2-3″ of rain expected by Wednesday morning and wind gusts expected to be in the 40 to as much as 50 mph range tomorrow afternoon and evening. Flood conditions and power outages are likely and the NWS has issued flood watches and high wind advisories for the entire area. Obviously, be careful when traveling tomorrow through early Wednesday.

After tomorrow’s deluge, a second storm is expected to develop late this week and take a similar track. If so, we can expect more of the same late Friday and early Saturday. Beyond that, we might finally get into a better winter pattern for the end of January and February, but it’s getting tough to stay hopeful.

We need some snow.

Mostly Wet but a Pasting for Western Areas

Friday, Jan 5, 3PM

I’m hoping that the models are wrong and things will be colder than expected, but for areas along and east of 95, this should be a little wintry mix followed by a bunch of rain. Of course, the usual rule of heading further north and west, the better the chances for snow. Regardless, precipitation arrives around noon tomorrow probably in the form of snow for most, then transitions quickly to rain for eastern areas. For the 95 corridor, there may be a quick coating on grassy surfaces but the snow should change to rain in the early afternoon. The rain/snow line should continue working north and west through the afternoon as warmer air moves in from the east, but areas along the PA line and west of Frederick may stay all snow throughout the day. Winter Storm Warnings are posted for those areas for up to 5″ of snow and maybe ice, and the lesser Winter Weather Advisories are posted for the peripheral areas to the east, including Howard.

Not to get anyone’s hopes up, but if the precipitation comes in heavy enough, there might be a few surprises even along 95. Heavier precipitation can mix the atmosphere and drag enough cold air down to overcome some warming. I’m not expecting that but it is a possibility. If that were to happen, we might be able to get a little snow thump before the transition to rain in the metro corridor.

I’ll send an update early Saturday morning for those that might have travel plans.

Happy New Year and Maybe Better Winter Times Ahead

As we begin the new year, it looks like our chances for winter weather may finally be increasing with our first chance coming next weekend. All models are indicating that a storm will impact the area next weekend, but the track, strength, and type of precipitation are unknown. The good news is that models have been very consistent that a storm will develop and impact the area next Saturday night and Sunday, and those same models have been fairly consistent that at least some snow will fall across much of the region. The bad news is that we are still 6 days away so things will definitely change. I am reluctant to say it, but some of the output is very encouraging, so if models remain consistent and we get within a reasonable time frame, I’ll begin sending more specific updates.

Regarding the winter in general, I am disappointed that we didn’t get any real winter weather in December, but given the Pacific is an El Nino, things have been progressing as expected. For me, it’s difficult to remain patient because it feels like forever since we’ve had any snow (BWI has recently surpassed 700 days without an inch of snow), but El Nino’s generally deliver in the second half of winter, so a December shutout is not uncommon. Looking at the long range models, they still indicate that late January and February hold some promise, though no one should blame us if we take a “I’ll believe it when I see it” attitude. Hopefully we get on the board this weekend and can put our dismal losing streak to rest!

Regardless, Happy New Year, and I look forward to more posting opportunities in the near future!

Here’s the Snow Contest!

There isn’t any snow on the immediate horizon, but the rainstorm expected this Sunday reminds me of a rain event that we had around the same time in December 2009. I doubt I have to remind anyone of what happened about ten days later that month. Interestingly, there does look to be some better potential in the in the long range leading up to break, though I am going to try to wait to see if it’s a genuine trend or just another head fake like we’ve seen the last several years. I say try because already this year feels different than any of our recent winters, and different would be very good.

In the meantime, feel free to peruse or save the Snow Contest below. Good luck!

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