Snow Contest & Tonight / Early Sunday

Saturday, December 13, 11AM

First things first, the winner of the Snow Contest this year is Mikaela Lidgard with her guess of December 4, at 8AM, and the actual first inch of snow at BWI was recorded on December 5, at noon. To be honest, I was caught off-guard because at my house well north of BWI, there was only a coating, so I was surprised to see that the airport did so much better. But, as has been the case the last few winters, the southern areas have done better than the north Baltimore metro area. I was also surprised that no one in the contest (125 entries) picked December 5th as the first snow as it has occurred three or four times since we started doing this some 17 years ago. Anyway, congratulations to Mikaela! Her coffee mug is being ordered and will be on the way soon (as is last year’s winner’s mug, Shelley Clemens!).

As far as tonight, believe it or not, I think it might actually snow! I will say that there is a significant bust possibility because of the type system that we are dealing with. A strong cold front is moving across the midwest today, and as it approaches the coast, a low will develop along the front. We’ve been burned pretty bad in the past by systems like this as it is difficult for models to pinpoint where and when the storm will form, but there is undoubtedly solid model agreement that it should happen far enough south and west for central MD to get 2 – 4″ of snow overnight. The area most likely to see accumulating snow is again from I-270/ MD Route 15 and east, with the possibility of heavy snow occurring along the 95 corridor for several hours overnight. There may be some scattered light rain or snow showers up until about 10 or 11PM, but around midnight, the precipitation should become steadier. The front associated with the system has plenty of cold air to work with, so any rain should change to snow quickly once the steady precipitation begins. By morning, all areas will be below freezing and will stay that way through the day as the very cold air is ushered in on strong northwest winds. Tomorrow is going to look very wintry wherever it snows tonight because of the cold temperatures, gusty winds, and blowing snow.

Today is pretty busy for me, but I’ll try to send an update early this evening if anything changes.

Wave After Wave After Wave

Friday, February 7, 8AM

During the cold stretch in January, the jet stream looked like a roller coaster with a big northern arc (ridge) over the western US, and a big dip (trough) across the eastern US. This is important because the jet stream acts as a boundary between warm air and cold air. An oversimplified explanation is that if the jet stream is to your north, it’s generally warm, and if it’s positioned to your south, it’s cold. Since we were in a trough through most of January, and the jet stream was south of us, arctic air was plentiful. Since that pattern broke a couple of weeks ago, the jet stream has stretched out and is now more zonal (west to east) without a big ridge or trough. The chatter among weather enthusiasts was that this period would probably be a break from winter until around mid month when the pattern looks to change again with a more “buckled” jet stream (and the pattern does look really good for the second half of the month). What no one really expected was that this period of zonal flow would give us multiple waves of winter weather, but that’s exactly what is happening. Waves of low pressure are sliding along the boundary, and depending on what side of the boundary we are on for any specific wave, we could have rain, snow, or a mix. This looks to continue for the next week or so with precipitation possible every two or three days.

First up is the system for tomorrow. Like yesterday’s event, this will also be slopfest. Some form of precip develops across the area around 1 – 2PM and continues into the overnight hours. Temperatures look to be a little bit colder for most areas, so tomorrow afternoon could be sketchy if you’re planning to be out. The one thing going for us is that it will be during day light so that should mitigate a lot of icing on roads, but know that by about 5PM, if temperatures are still below freezing, things could deteriorate very quickly with the setting sun. Tomorrow is a good day to find something to do at home.

After tomorrow comes the system on Tuesday/Wednesday that already has everyone talking. Right now it looks like we will be on the cold side of the boundary, and cold enough for accumulating snow. Models are about the same with timing which is Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning, but are not in agreement on the exact placement of the boundary or the amount of precipitation. For now, just know that winter weather is likely beginning after noon on Tuesday, and it could be in the form of moderate snow. Any accumulation numbers you’re reading or hearing now are just a guess, and I’d certainly be skeptical of the big numbers that the GFS is tossing out. Some GFS runs have produced pretty snow maps that are a lot of fun to look at, but it has not been consistent from run to run so don’t believe them. The Euro has been more consistent with a moderate event that frankly looks more convincing. I’ll update periodically over the weekend.

Winter Reset

Sunday, February 2, Noon

Now that our recent pattern has broken down, we can talk about how cold its been. This past January was 4.0 degrees below normal at BWI, which really isn’t that cold, but it was the coldest month since 2014. Unfortunately, precipitation was much below normal, so we are still below normal for snowfall. The only decent snow was on January 6, but because of the cold, we had snow cover for about three weeks, and some remnant snow piles are still around.

So, now that we are two-thirds through meteorological winter, what’s next? If you haven’t heard, the rodent Phil saw his shadow this morning so folklore says we have six weeks of winter to go. I wouldn’t read too much into that since over his 138 year history, an early spring has only been predicted 21 times. But, over the next couple of days, we will slide to the south side of a warm and cold air boundary with tomorrow and Tuesday being a prelude to spring. Enjoy it because the front looks to slip south Tuesday night as a wave of low pressure approaches, bringing much colder air and a chance of mixed precipitation on Wednesday. It’s too early to for details, but Wednesday afternoon and evening could be sloppy. I’ll update as things come into better focus.

Long term and the remainder of February, the next couple of weeks look seasonal with temperatures and precipitation averaging around normal as we oscillate back and forth on either side of the boundary. There will be several chances at some snow, but it will depend on what side of the boundary we are on. First chance is on Wednesday. By mid month, the early January pattern looks to reload and models are suggesting that winter ends on a cold and possibly snowy note. Way too early to get our hopes up, but with less than 4 weeks until March, let’s hope they’re right.

More on Wednesday’s potential tomorrow.

Sunday

Preface

If after reading the update, you feel like you haven’t learned anything, it’s deliberate because confidence is low on specifics. My official first forecast for tomorrow is that it’s a good day to get any errands or activities wrapped up by late morning and then hover around a fire for the remainder of the day.

Saturday, January 18, 9AM

Hopefully we all got a chance to enjoy the relatively milder temperatures because the bottom is about to fall out. During the day tomorrow arctic air will begin spilling into the area and for the MLK holiday and well into the shortened work week, temperatures will struggle to reach even 20 degrees for highs, and some areas will likely fall below zero for the first time in years. I’ve been a pretty quiet regarding tomorrow because the snow portion is a tricky forecast, but the coming cold air is guaranteed. The difficulty in the forecast for Sunday for the majority of the area is the timing of the arrival of the cold air, so I’m going to keep this short and worry about details in later updates as the models come in during the day today.

Precipitation will arrive tomorrow morning from southwest to northeast across the area from 7 – 9AM. If it starts as snow, you’re locked in to 4 – 6″. If it’s raining, obviously the amount of snow will be determined by when the colder air arrives. I think areas west of 95 changeover by noon and east of 95 to the bay between noon and 2PM. Regardless, by about noon until about 5PM, the precip could become moderate to heavy. It’s a quick moving system, but I think all areas west of the bay across central MD get 2 – 4″ by the time things wrap up, and areas that are currently under a Winter Storm Warning (Frederick, Carroll, and northern Baltimore counties) end up in the 4 – 6″ range.

I’ll send out an update this evening between the upset in Kansas City and the taming of the Lions.

Unsettled Weekend and Then Frigid

Wednesday, January 15, 1PM

First, we officially have a winner in the Snow Contest! The first inch of snow was recorded at BWI airport at 4AM on January 6th, so Mack wins this year’s contest with a guess of 4:30AM. Congratulations, Mack, and if you’re reading this, please send contact info to me by emailing theweathermill@gmail.com.

As far as the weather is concerned, the snow from nearly 10 days ago is still on the ground which demonstrates how cold it has been since we started the new year. So far, January is running about 4 degrees below normal, and over the next week it’s going to only get colder, especially early next week.

Regarding snow potential, an Alberta clipper system to our north tomorrow will drag its associated cold front across the area so a few snow showers are not out of the question for tomorrow afternoon and evening, but it should not cause any issues. Behind the front is just more cold, dry, and blustery conditions, so right now there are no big snow events in our immediate future.

The good news is that if you are tired of the cold, by Friday afternoon and through Saturday, the temperatures should begin to moderate to where they might actually get to our normal high of the low 40’s. Precipitation potential for the weekend is still not clear, but maybe some rain Saturday evening and maybe some rain to snow Sunday depending on how quickly the cold air returns. The bad news is there is no question that the cold is returning. The MLK holiday will be very cold with temperatures not rising out of the 20’s during the day on Monday, and it gets worse. Lows Tuesday morning are expected to be in the single digits and the highs will likely not get out of the teens. It’s going to be so cold and windy that I am concerned that there may be schedule changes as a result of sub zero wind chill temperatures through much of the day Tuesday.

Precipitation is unsettled through the period, but there look to be several opportunities for snowfall over the next 7 – 10 days. Sunday/Monday is still not a done deal, and then depending on your model du jour, something may develop midweek and/or at the end of next week. Hopefully I’ll have cause to update.

Still on Track for Snow

Sunday, January 5, 11AM

I can’t recall the last time we had snow coming with a legitimate arctic air mass in place, but that’s what we have beginning tonight. The watches from yesterday have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings across the entire area, so decisions for school systems should be easy and quick. They will probably start announcing closings later this afternoon with an annoying scroll across Uncle Nam’s TV football games.

Models are still in some disagreement on how it all plays out for central MD, so my overall confidence in snow totals is not very high. For what it’s worth, my current thinking, and I am fairly confident on this point, is that snow will develop from southwest to northeast between midnight and 3AM. Snow will become moderate to heavy quickly and continue into the morning. Morning travel is not recommended as temperatures for the duration of the storm will be below freezing. By noon, I am expecting anywhere from 3 – 6″ to have accumulated. During the afternoon there will be a lull in precipitation with snizzle and maybe even freezing drizzle. During the evening, another steady area of snow should develop and add an additional 1 – 2″ to freshen up any crusty snowpack for a total of 4 – 8″.

Regarding the low confidence in snow totals, for central MD I think the chances of being under the 4″ threshold is less than being over the 8″ threshold. This storm will be packing a punch in the morning hours as warm air from the system collides with the arctic air. If we are going to get the higher amounts, it would most likely be during the morning hours. The afternoon lull and evening 1 – 2″ seems reasonable to me. It’s the morning that could, and hopefully will provide some surprises.

If I see anything different, I’ll send out shorter updates during the day.

The Biggest Snowfall In Years?

Saturday, January 4, 9:30AM

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Watches across all of MD for the expected snowfall late Sunday night and Monday. The exact track has yet to be determined, but the major models suggest at least 4″ of snow for the entire area beginning around 1AM Monday morning. With temperatures expected to be below freezing across central MD for the duration of the storm (and probably for the entire workweek after), travel and schedules will likely be impacted. For the weather nerds (that is a term of endearment), more details follow.

A couple of days ago, I was concerned about a north trend in both the GFS and the Euro. Long- time followers of The Weather Mill know of this specter and how it can bring simultaneous tears of joy or heartache depending on the circumstances. January 30, 2010, is an example. That was the winter of the three blizzards; one, the week before Christmas, 2009, and the two that were days apart in February 2010. After the blizzard in December, we settled into a non-snow pattern through late January. Then, a storm that was expected to bring snow to the Carolinas, was suddenly nudged by the north trend specter and gave us a decent snowstorm bringing tears of joy to Mid-Atlantic snow-weenies, while Carolinians wept. You won’t find the term “north trend specter” in any meteorological textbook, but I assure you, it exists.

Anyway, back to our current storm. As I said, a couple of days ago I was becoming concerned that this north trend was happening to us, and as many of you know, it happens to us with frustrating regularity. But what was once our storm, was now becoming Philly’s, or even worse, New York or Boston’s. Every six hours, model run after model run kept ticking the storm north. Where we once were bulls-eyed by the storm, we quickly became underneath it as areas north of the Mason Dixon Line looked to get the goods. But, in a single run overnight Thursday, the Euro went from slipping north to suddenly way south. Richmond snow-weenies were high-fiving and northern MD’ers were kicking dust bunnies. The gfs also starting ticking south but not as drastically as the Euro. We were still going to get snow, but there is still a sickening feeling seeing (ridiculous and wrong) snow maps suggesting a foot of snow, and then six hours later seeing the same map with 3″ of snow. I know it’s unhealthy and I probably need medication, but once I get teased by a snow map, regardless of how much the 5% of me that is rational resists it, I get greedy.

Since then, the Euro stopped sagging south, stabilized, and in recent runs has ticked a bit north, but still too far south for central MD to get into the really greedy stuff. Don’t get me wrong. There’s a lot to like about the Euro. With the heaviest axis of snow to the south, so is the warm air, and as a result, we are in the low to mid 20’s all day Monday with a steady, fluffy snow that isn’t going anywhere. Per the latest run of the Euro, about 4″ of snow falls at the Mason Dixon Line and then increases to about 6″ in Baltimore and to 8″ just north of DC. So, a general 4 – 8″ of snow, and probably exceeding my biggest snowfall at home in years. I should be satisfied.

Meanwhile, the GFS is similar to the Euro but brings the goods a little further north. Like the Euro, snow starts around 1AM on Monday morning, but is heavier into the morning commute, maybe a dry-slot of light snizzle during the day, and then another round in the evening as the upper level low passes and transfers to the coast. Total snowfall on the GFS is about 6″ along the Mason Dixon Line, 8″ around Baltimore, and nearly a foot closer to DC.

Then there’s the NAM. The NAM is like your drunk uncle that passes out watching football during the holidays and wakes up occasionally to yell at the terrible call of a play on TV that’s actually a commercial for Levi’s. The thing is, that every once in a while he gets lucky, wakes up at the right time and makes a very good observation. Uncle NAM is showing a general 8 -10″ snowfall across all of central MD that frankly, isn’t too hard to believe. Just know that with snow, I’m irrational.

My personal opinion is that the dust hasn’t settled yet and we don’t know where the biggest axis of snow will be, and most importantly, how we get there. I do think it’s going to snow, and it’s going to be impactful. I just don’t know what path we end up taking. It would be great to wake up on Monday morning to moderate snow that continues all day and then stops just after sunset, but I don’t think it plays out like that. We are going to have to watch for all the regular caveats around here including the dry slot, a warm layer in the mid-levels that changes snow to sleet, and the dreaded “rob Peter to pay Paul” transfer of energy to the coast. I’ll save the meaning of that weather term for another day.

I’ll update later today.

This Afternoon and Evening Commute

Friday, January 3, 6AM

There’s a lot of potential winter weather to talk about over the next 72 hours with Sunday night and Monday beginning to come into focus, but for now, I am going to focus on this afternoon’s system. I’ll update on the Sunday night/Monday storm later this morning. Also, apologies for the ramble, but I don’t have time to do any real proofing right now.

A clipper system will cross the area this afternoon and bring the potential for a strong line of snow showers. Depending on location, surface temperatures may initially be too warm to support snow, but any rain will change to snow quickly. This is not expected to be a long duration snow event, but it is worrisome because of the potential brief intensity and also the timing. Right now it looks like a line of showers will cross central MD from about 2-4PM. Surface temperatures at the time are expected to be above freezing in all locations, but in the areas of heaviest precipitation, high snow rates could overcome warm temperatures and briefly accumulate on even roads. This could happen anywhere across central and northern MD, but models have focused on the northern tier (along and north of I 70) as the most likely areas to have issues. As a result, the NWS has issued Winter Weather Advisories for the counties bordering PA (Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore, Harford, Cecil) as well as Howard county.

Again, this will not be a long duration snow event and for many areas the snow will not be an issue. There is some concern however, that once the front passes and temperatures drop relatively quickly, that there will not be time for pavement to dry before temperatures fall below freezing this evening. Again, most likely areas for concern are the normally colder areas to the north.

So, in brief, this afternoon will probably be no big deal for most areas, but be prepared for a brief period of heavy rain to snow showers, and possible icy conditions once the sun begins to set.

More on Sunday night and Monday later this morning.

It’s About Time…

2024 may be going out with a bang regardless of your New Year’s Eve plans as a strong cold front crosses the area this evening. Expect a line of showers and possible thunderstorms from about 5 to 8PM from west to east. After the frontal passage, gusty winds and seasonably cooler temperatures for tomorrow, New Year’s Day. Then, a cold air mass settles in and, as far as temperatures are concerned, we may be in for the best stretch of winter weather in several years. Models have been advertising a prolonged stretch of cold lasting at least into the second half of January. Even better, normal to even above normal precipitation is expected. Whether that translates to snow is still to be determined, but models are already starting to focus on a few threats.

First, a weak clipper system may bring some snow showers to central MD Friday evening and night, but it does not look to be anything more than cosmetic, and even that may be too strong a description. The next system for Sunday night into Monday has greater potential, but I would not expect details being ironed out until the weekend. After that, we will have to wait to see how deep and broad the trough is that sets up over the eastern half of the country to see if we can reel in a sizeable event.

Regardless, the buzz from the pros is that the next few weeks has more potential than any winter period over the past five years. Frankly, that isn’t saying much, so I’ll be trying to keep my enthusiasm in check until I’m confident of snow. But it does feel pretty good to start tracking potential storms again, and I hope to be updating more frequently these next few weeks. Fortunately, and thanks to my secret Star Buddy’s mug gift, I am ready to go!

The computer image below (courtesy of Pivotal Weather) is from today’s 12z European model run depicting 1AM Monday morning. But be warned. Long-time followers of the WM know that snow in these parts can be fickle, so don’t get your hopes up just yet. Winter here is almost always a bumpy ride.

We Reeled One In!

Friday, Jan 19, 430AM

By the time most will be reading this, they may have surmised that the models are playing catch up with this system. The short term mesoscale model runs this morning were a thing of beauty and enough for the NWS to hoist Winter Storm Warnings across central MD including Montgomery, Howard, and all the MD/PA border counties from Frederick east including Baltimore. We can now expect 4 – 5″ of snow in those areas, and possibly more. Models suggest that a heavy band of snow will set up somewhere across central MD and if so, those areas could do even better.

At 4AM, light snow has commenced for most and it will become steadier and heavier through the morning commute. I’m secretly thinking we might even do a little better than what the models are suggesting now, but I could be just getting greedy. Regardless, I am delighted to see two things as a result of this storm. First and foremost, that it can and will still snow here. The past two years have been brutal for people that enjoy winter, so this past week has been pretty good, and frankly, therapeutic. Secondly, I really enjoy that in spite of all the advances and technology in data gathering and modeling, snow can still sneak up on us. It’s nice to recognize that we can’t control everything even if it’s just snow.

Anyway, after today’s storm, a fresh blast of cold air for the weekend and then a January thaw looks to commence. Hopefully the pattern reloads in early February and we can do another week or two of real winter. If anything changes today, I’ll update.